BMIE Market 16415

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,104 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±672 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,616 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±255 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,916 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,399 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,214 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,540 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$310,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16415
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16415. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.6	77	40%	+30.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.5	56	35%	+19.4
Market Momentum Score	35.4	35	25%	+8.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,104	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	108,214	86	40%	+34.3
Households (ACS)	3,616	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	10,104	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	108,214	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 8 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 6 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Legion Post 742 American Legion	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American · Burgers	7605 Maple St	open
Avonia Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	7321 W Lake Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	7517 W Ridge Rd	open
BW's Grill	Bar		6467 Sterrettania Rd	open
Castle Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7334 W Lake Rd	open
Chico's Traveler's Inn Inc	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7294 W Ridge Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7470 West Ridge Road	open
Elk Creek Inn	Bar · Casual dining	American	6886 Sterrettania Rd	open
Fedex Ground	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7650 Birkmire Dr	open
Jitters Coffee & Bake Shoppe	Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	7403 W Ridge Rd	open
Land Yacht Dinor	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6557 Sterrettania Rd	open
Main Street Cakery Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	7403 W Ridge Rd	open
Mama's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	7666 W Ridge Rd	open
MP Coney Island MP Coney Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	6360 Sterrettania Rd	open
Out of the Grey Coffeehousecafe	Café	Coffee	6990 W Lake Rd	open
Peppino's Italian Chop House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Steakhouse	6590 W Lake Rd	open
Sabo's Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7402 W Ridge Rd	open
Sherman's Street Food and Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery · Burgers · American	7666 W Ridge Rd	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	7402 W Ridge Rd	open
The Que Abides Pit Stop	Food truck	BBQ · American	6990 W Lake Rd	open
The Swan Tavern	Bar		6610 W Lake Rd	open
Treasure Island Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	7495 W Ridge Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	11	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	13	9	3	5	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	12	9	3	5	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	14	10	6	4	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	14	9	4	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	4	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	5	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	14	11	5	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	14	10	6	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	14	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	5	4	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	6	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16415. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16506	4.2 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.