BMIE Market 16428

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,595 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±434 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,478 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,251 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,675 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,221 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$778 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±98 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$193,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,105 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	73.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16428
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-17.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+11.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 14–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16428. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.6	69	40%	+27.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.2	52	35%	+18.3
Market Momentum Score	25.1	25	25%	+6.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,595	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	78,675	60	40%	+24.2
Households (ACS)	5,010	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.1	52	25%	+13.1
Population (ACS)	12,595	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	78,675	60	20%	+12.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-17.4	14	50%	+7.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	5.6	37	20%	+7.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (54)

By cuisine

American 11 · Dessert 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Breakfast 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Caribbean 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Winery / distillery / taproom 19 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arrowhead Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		12073 E Main Rd	open
Arundel Cellars and Brewing Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		11727 E Main Rd	open
Av Pizzas Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13 E Main St	open
B&D COUNTRY DINER	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	10082 PA-89	open
Blue Iris Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		10431 W Main Rd	open
Bobamochi	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	33 S Lake St	open
Brotherhood Of St Joseph	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	50 Clinton St	open
Bulls dam Northeast pa	Bar			open
Burch Farms Country Market	Winery / distillery / taproom		9210 Sidehill Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	99 W Main St	open
Butch's Diner	Casual dining	American · Chinese	37 Vine St	open
Cellar '54	Winery / distillery / taproom		9368 W Law Rd	open
China Jade	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	14 E Main St	open
Courtyard Winery Courtyard Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		10021 W Main Rd	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	10362 W Main Rd	open
Davis' Country Kitchen And Coffee Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	10082 Route 89	open
Dragonfly Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3 W Main St	open
Driftwood Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		20 E Main St	open
Freeport Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11104 Lake Rd	open
Heritage Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		12160 E Main Rd	open
JB's Corner Treats & Eats	Dessert · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	10094 Route 89	open
John Schultz & Sons	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		9510 Sidehill Rd	open
Johnny B's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	37 Vine St	open
La Casa De Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13 E Main St	open
Lake Erie Wine Contry	Winery / distillery / taproom		10497 Sidehill Rd	open
Lakeview Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8440 Singer Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	109 W Main St	open
Little Shop of Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	45 E Main St	open
Mazza Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		11815 E Lake Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12185 E Main Rd	open
Michael's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	20 S Lake St	open
New Harvest Restaurant and Pub	Bar · Casual dining	American	11019 Sidehill Rd	open
Niagara Falls, Ny	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Noosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11950 Lake Rd	open
North East Moose Family Center	Casual dining · Bar		12080 E Main St	open
Northern Scoop Craft Ice Cream	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1120 Freeport Rd	open
P J Wilcox Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11019 Sidehill Rd	open
Penn Shore Winery and Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		10225 E Lake Rd	open
Presque Isle Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		9440 W Main Rd	open
South Shore Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1120 Freeport Rd	open
Straw Hat Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	201 S Lake St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	12271 E Main Rd	open
Subway Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	19 E Main St	open
The Bean Coffee House	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	12 S Lake St	open
The Cork 1794	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	17 West Main St.	open
The CrayZ Parrot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	11950 Lake Rd	open
The Ruffed Grouse Bar & Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	10326 W Main Rd	open
The Straw Hat Sundae Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	207 S Lake St	open
The Vine Bar and Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		11884 E Main St	open
Tierra Clara Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11820 E Lake Rd	open
Toast Lounge & Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	10651 W Main Rd	open
Trolley Line Vineyards, Ltd.	Winery / distillery / taproom		11480 E Main Rd	open
Willowbrook Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom		8241 Gulf Rd	open
Yori Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		18 S Lake St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	17	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	21	16	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	21	15	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	25	19	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	21	15	7	7	1	5	NAICS1997
1999	19	14	6	7	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	20	15	7	7	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	21	15	8	6	1	4	NAICS1997
2002	16	13	6	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	21	18	7	11	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	20	17	5	11	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	22	18	6	10	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	25	19	6	11	1	4	NAICS2002
2007	26	22	9	10	2	3	NAICS2002
2008	25	22	10	9	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	27	22	10	10	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	29	23	10	10	3	3	NAICS2007
2011	26	20	8	10	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	26	22	9	11	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	23	19	9	8	2	3	NAICS2012
2014	27	21	9	9	3	3	NAICS2012
2015	23	17	8	8	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	24	19	8	7	4	3	NAICS2012
2017	25	21	6	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	23	7	11	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	20	6	10	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	18	6	9	3	3	NAICS2017
2021	25	20	8	9	3	3	NAICS2017
2022	23	18	8	7	3	3	NAICS2022
2023	23	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16428. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14736	5.0 mi	4	2017

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.