BMIE Market 17023

Dauphin County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,489 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±367 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,535 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,507 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,435 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,216 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$775 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$210,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,523 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17023
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	31.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17023. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.3	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35.2	35	35%	+12.3
Market Momentum Score	23.4	23	25%	+5.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,489	55	40%	+21.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,435	61	40%	+24.6
Households (ACS)	1,348	55	20%	+10.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.7	22	25%	+5.4
Population (ACS)	3,489	55	20%	+10.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,435	61	20%	+12.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	11.1	40	20%	+8.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · American 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bearded Lady Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		45 W Broad St	open
Bhavana Mela Yoga	Restaurant (service type not stated)		320 Tennessee Ave	open
Broad Mountain Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		34C S Market St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4622 US-209	open
China Wok China Wok El Salvador	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4686 US-209	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	4612 State Route 209	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4612 State Route 209	open
Espresso Inspired Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	223 E Market St	open
Ice Cream Alley	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4865 State Route 209	open
Jerry's Subs & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4019 State Route 209 # 4199	open
Jerry's Subs & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4175 State Route 209	open
Jo-Jo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	17 W Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4660 Rt 209	open
Morton's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	100 Wolf Rd	open
Pizza Delight Pizza Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	121 W Main St	open
Schianos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	225 W Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	50 N Market St	open
Subway Subway	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Bakery	200 Kocher Ln	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4634 State Route 209	open
The Henry's Beef Barn	Specialty food shop	American	275 Kocher Rd	open
The Special Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	72 N Market St	open
The Sugar Hut	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	4381 State Route 209	open
Villa Schiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4900 US-209	open
Walmart Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	200 Kocher Ln	open
Zetina's E-ville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4686 US-209	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	3	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17023. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17005	1.5 mi	1	1999
17030	4.0 mi	3	2023
17080	4.1 mi	1	2013
17061	4.8 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.