BMIE Market 17356
York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 22,869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,084 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,109 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±542 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 21,610 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 8,835 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $86,561 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,068 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 39.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,051 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $240,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,682 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 33.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17356 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +4.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +23.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +52.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 27 (range 23–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17356. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.28, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 78.1 | 78 | 40% | +31.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 65.8 | 66 | 35% | +23.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 55.5 | 56 | 25% | +13.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 22,869 | 84 | 40% | +33.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 86,561 | 70 | 40% | +27.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,109 | 84 | 20% | +16.8 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 8.3 | 53 | 35% | +18.4 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.4 | 67 | 25% | +16.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 22,869 | 84 | 20% | +16.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 86,561 | 70 | 20% | +14.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 4 | 60 | 50% | +30.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 8.3 | 53 | 30% | +15.8 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 23.8 | 48 | 20% | +9.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (70)
By cuisine
American 12 · Pizza 12 · Coffee 7 · Dessert 7 · Italian 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Chinese 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Bakery 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Quick service 14 · Bar 13 · Dessert 11 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Brew Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3140 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Ain't That Some Shake | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 214 N Franklin St | open |
| Amazing Grazin Charcuterie | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Food truck | Sandwiches | 41 N Main St | open |
| Anstine's Candy | Dessert | 35 N Main St | open | |
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 3111 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Bella Roma | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 10887 Oak Ridge Ave | open |
| Big Hammer Bar & Grill | Bar | 30 Ness Rd | open | |
| Black Cap Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 252 N Franklin St | open | |
| Bonkey's Red Lion Bonkey's Ice Cream & Snoballs | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 86 N Main St | open |
| Broadway Subshop | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 35 E Broadway | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 3100 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Cape Horn Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 601 Lombard Rd | open | |
| Captain Bob's Crabs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 90 Martin St | open |
| Central Pizza & Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 33 N Main St | open |
| Dairyland Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4 Dairyland Sq | open |
| Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Pizza | 7 Dairyland Sq | open |
| Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 401 E Broadway | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Dessert · Bakery · Quick service · Coffee shop | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee | 3103 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Forbidden City Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3147 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Fortune Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 760 W Broadway #1914 | open |
| Franchesca's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 214 N Franklin St | open |
| Franklin Street Social | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 214 N Franklin St Ste E | open | |
| G's Concessions | Food truck | Sandwiches · American | 1070 New Bridgeville Rd | open |
| Golden Crust Pizza & Taproom | Casual dining · Bar | Pizza · Italian | 59 E Broadway | open |
| Great American Saloon | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 20 Dairyland Sq | open |
| Grounding | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 252 N Franklin St | open |
| Hippo 3129 Cape Horn Road, Red Lion Pa 17356 | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 3129 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Hong Kong Chef | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 3175 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Lighthouse 153 | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Seafood · American | 214 N Franklin St | open |
| Lion's Pride Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 20 Dairyland Sq | open |
| Lucky Seven | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8 Dairyland Sq | open |
| Mac Factory | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 214 N Franklin St | open |
| Macks Ice Cream and Restaurant by the Good's | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 811 Delta Rd | open |
| Mama D's Bakery | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | Mama D’s Bakery & Cafe \n801 Delta Rd Red Lion \nWed. 8-3\nFriday 8-3\nSat. 8-3\n | open |
| Marcello's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3149 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Marshmallowmba | Dessert | 35 East Ave | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 897 W Broadway | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 655 Lombard Rd | open |
| Mickey's Wholesale Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 135 Burkholder Rd | open |
| Musso's Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 406 E Broadway | open |
| Noodle King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 214 N Franklin St | open |
| Number One Szechuan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 639 Lombard Rd | open |
| Old Tom's Cellar Bar | Casual dining · Bar | open | ||
| Paesanos Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 406 E Broadway | open | |
| Phat Cat Coffee Company | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 20 N Main St | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3121 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Red Lion Alesmiths | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom | 157 E Broadway | open | |
| Red Lion Corner Café | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 601 Lombard Rd | open |
| Red Lion Tavern | Bar | German / Eastern European | 27 N Main St | open |
| Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 617 Lombard Rd | open |
| Rita’s of Red Lion PA Rita's Italian Ice | Dessert · Bar | Dessert | open | |
| Rocoto - Peruvian & Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Peruvian · Mexican | 2997 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Roma's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 25 W Howard St | open |
| Roma's Pizza and Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 653 Lombard Rd | open |
| Scrubby's Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 90 Martin St | open | |
| Sign of the Horse | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 16 N Main St | open | |
| Slow and Low BBQ PA | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 214 N Franklin St | open | |
| SONIC Drive In | Quick service | 3111 Cape Horn Rd | open | |
| South Side Cafe | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2530 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Sprinkles & Company | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 103 Broadway E | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 3175 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 3131 A Cape Horn Road | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | 610 Lombard Road | open | |
| Taqueria El Camino | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 214 N Franklin St Unit 3 | open |
| The Hub - Red Lion | Bar | 157 E Broadway | open | |
| The Post Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 23 Broadway E | open |
| The Sugar Rose Bake Shop | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 101 S Main St | open |
| Vincenzo's Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 59 E Broadway | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3197 Cape Horn Rd | open |
| Willow Wineries | Winery / distillery / taproom | 225 S Camp St | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 17 | 17 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 13 | 13 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 14 | 13 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 12 | 11 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 18 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 21 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 23 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 23 | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 22 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 21 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 23 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 24 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 27 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 24 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 22 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 23 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 25 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |