BMIE Market 17313

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,428 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,091 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,350 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±390 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,899 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,562 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,176 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,180 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,097 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$237,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,784 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17313
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17313. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.4	62	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.0	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	20.8	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,428	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	70,176	47	40%	+18.9
Households (ACS)	4,350	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.3	91	25%	+22.7
Population (ACS)	11,428	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	70,176	47	20%	+9.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Seafood 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beer Mongers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3000 S Queen St	open
Bonos Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		476 E Main St	open
Captain Bobs Steamed Crabs Captain Bob's Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1 E Main St	open
Common Grounds	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	109 E Main St	open
Gruvers Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	64 E Main St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	820 E Main St	open
Jino Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Korean · Asian	890 Country Club Rd	open
K's Kakery	Bakery	Bakery	392 W Main St Rear	open
Krua Thai Cafe	Café	Thai · Coffee · Asian	45 E Main St	open
Meadows Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	855 E Main St	open
Paddy's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	29 E Main St	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	857 E Main St Unit B	open
Parma Pizza Dallastown Parma Pizza Dallastown	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	476 E Main St	open
Roburrito's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	397 W Main St	open
Roma's Pizza and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2 E Main St	open
Slice Of Italy Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	476 E Main St	open
Sporkys	Restaurant (service type not stated)		473 W Main St	open
The Glad Crab	Bar · Casual dining	Seafood	3086 S Queen St	open
Urban Steer	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	64 E Main St	open
Winery at Wyndridge	Winery / distillery / taproom		887 S Pleasant Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	7	—	7	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	—	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	—	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	4	—	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	1	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17313. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17407	3.0 mi	3	2021
17342	3.5 mi	1	2016
17403	3.7 mi	48	2023
17356	4.0 mi	26	2023
17402	5.0 mi	130	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.