BMIE Market 17407

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,673 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±522 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	913 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±136 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,355 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	857 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$122,625 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,561 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,018 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±604 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$306,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,074 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2021 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2021 detail (NAICS2017) · by USPS ZIP 17407
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2026	3 (range 2–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2009–2021 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.57) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17407. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2009–2021, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.57, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.1	66	40%	+26.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.9	74	35%	+25.9
Market Momentum Score	87.2	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,673	50	40%	+20.1
Median household income (ACS)	122,625	91	40%	+36.5
Households (ACS)	913	48	20%	+9.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.2	67	25%	+16.9
Population (ACS)	2,673	50	20%	+10.0
Median household income (ACS)	122,625	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+56.4
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+30.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

American 2 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Artisanal Eats Breakfast & Lunch Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	51 N Main St	open
Bigguy Brewery	Brewery / taproom		430 School Rd	open
Daughters Cafe On Main	Coffee shop	Coffee	51 N Main St	open
Five Guys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2816 Concord Dr	open
Happy Belly Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	26 N Main St	open
Mr. Gary’s Sno Shack	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	34 N Main St	open
Paesano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	35 N Main St	open
Pappy's Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Seafood · American	35 N Main St	open
Southern Sweets By Jennie T	Bakery	Bakery	51 N Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2005	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17407. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17403	2.3 mi	48	2023
17342	2.4 mi	1	2016
17313	3.0 mi	6	2023
17360	3.3 mi	2	2016
17371	4.1 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.