BMIE Market 17368

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,005 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±742 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,887 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,322 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,212 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,694 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,460 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,142 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±101 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$223,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,221 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17368
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17368. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.8	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.6	71	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	84.2	84	25%	+21.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,005	65	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	92,694	76	40%	+30.3
Households (ACS)	2,887	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.4	67	25%	+16.7
Population (ACS)	7,005	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	92,694	76	20%	+15.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · Italian 4 · American 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
960 Hellam Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		960 Hellam St	open
BESTIES Pizzeria & Eatery	Quick service		38 N Main St	open
Burning Bridge Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		108 Hellam St	open
Cars&Pete	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6384 Lincoln Hwy	open
Casa' Doria Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	246 Hellam St	open
Craley crab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2701 Craley Rd	open
DiFrancesco Meadery	Bar		1237 Trinity North Rd	open
Hempzels	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	130 Hellam St	open
Italian Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	38 N Main St	open
JillyBeans Sweet Shoppe	Dessert · Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	115 Locust St	open
Marcello's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	500 Hellam St	open
Moon Dancer Vineyards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1282 Klines Run Rd	open
Prospect Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		190 Hedgewick Ln	open
Prospect Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	38 N Main St	open
River House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	2621 Craley Rd	open
River Rock Provisions	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	498 S Front St	open
Riverside Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	246 Hellam St	open
Rivertowne Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	960 Hellam St	open
The Accomac Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6330 South River Drive	open
The Jerky Connection	Quick service		218 N 2nd St	open
The River Market	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	234 N Front St	open
The Riverfront Bar and Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		338 S Front St	open
Tiny Pretzel Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	240 Walnut St	open
Wrightsville Pizza and Family	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	203 Hellam St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	5	2	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	6	5	5	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	6	4	2	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17368. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17317	0.9 mi	1	2016
17582	3.4 mi	—
17366	4.1 mi	1	2016
17512	4.2 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.