BMIE Market 17512
Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 18,148 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±947 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,692 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±501 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 17,836 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 7,580 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $66,684 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,694 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,072 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±66 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $245,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,805 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 16.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17512 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 10.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +12.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +12.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +55.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 29 (range 26–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17512. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 64.7 | 65 | 40% | +25.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56.6 | 57 | 35% | +19.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 63.4 | 63 | 25% | +15.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 18,148 | 80 | 40% | +31.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 66,684 | 42 | 40% | +16.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,692 | 81 | 20% | +16.2 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 12 | 56 | 35% | +19.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 15.4 | 51 | 25% | +12.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 18,148 | 80 | 20% | +15.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 66,684 | 42 | 20% | +8.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 12 | 70 | 50% | +35.0 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 12 | 56 | 30% | +16.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 40 | 58 | 20% | +11.7 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (69)
By cuisine
American 15 · Coffee 10 · Bakery 9 · Pizza 8 · Dessert 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Bakery 11 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 10 · Quick service 9 · Café 8 · Dessert 7 · Coffee shop 4 · Food truck 3 · Other 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aunt Cake's Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 245 Locust St | open |
| Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's | Quick service | 100 Main St. | open | |
| Auntie Anne's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1421 Habecker Rd | open | |
| Auntie Anne's Pretzel Truck Harrisburg Lancaster York Auntie Anne's | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | Bakery | Services Available In: | open |
| Black Olive Family Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1506 Lancaster Ave | open |
| Bully's Restaurant and Pub | Bar · Casual dining | 647 Union St | open | |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 531 N 3rd St | open |
| Cafe 301, LLC | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · Breakfast | 301 Locust St | open |
| China Inn Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3985 Columbia Ave | open |
| Coffee and Cream | Coffee shop · Dessert · Café | Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 101 N Front St | open |
| Columbia Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3985 Columbia Ave | open |
| Columbia Kettle Works Columbia Kettle Works | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 40 N 3rd St | open | |
| Columbia Pizza Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 429 Locust St | open |
| Creekside Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | 1519 Habecker Rd | open |
| Devonshire Pub | Bar · Quick service | 1 Devonshire Pl | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 318 Chestnut St | open |
| Ds/ds & Crew Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 647 Union St | open | |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 3929 Columbia Ave | open |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 1792 Columbia Ave | open |
| El Corazon Bakery & Cafe | Bakery · Coffee shop · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 1792 Columbia Ave | open |
| Forresters | Bar | 201 Locust St | open | |
| Golden stories | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 237 Locust St | open | |
| Golden Whisk | Bakery | Bakery | 15 S 3rd St | open |
| Grand China Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 156 Lancaster Ave | open |
| Griddles Malt Shoppe | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 315 Locust St | open |
| Gypsy Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | American · Coffee | 15 S 3rd St | open |
| Halo's Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 301 Cherry St | open |
| Harrington's Bar and Grille | Bar | 410 Locust St | open | |
| Hinkle's Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 261 Locust St | open |
| Hurricane Pizza Gril | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Pizza | 4031 Columbia Ave | open |
| Iron Bridge Bakery | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee | open | |
| JK Simply Cake | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 15 S 3rd St | open |
| Joboonie’s | Bar · Quick service | 1035 Ironville Pike | open | |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 353 Cherry Street | open |
| Lancaster Distilleries | Winery / distillery / taproom | 230 N 4th St | open | |
| Level Up Pizza Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Bar | Pizza · Italian | 237 Locust St | open |
| Market House Soft Pretzels | Bakery | Bakery | 15 S 3rd St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1788 Columbia Ave | open |
| Mr Joe's Steak House & Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Italian | 200 S 4th St | open |
| New Yang's Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 56 S 18th St | open |
| Orange Julius Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 1624 Lancaster Ave | open |
| Parma Pizza & Grill of Columbia | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 232 Locust St | open |
| Prince Street Cafe, Columbia Prince Street Cafe, York | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | 301 Locust St | open |
| Prospect Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4030 Minute Dr A | open |
| Prudhomme's Lost Cajun Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 50 Lancaster Ave | open |
| Rita's Italian Ice | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 3929 Columbia Ave | open |
| Rocky's BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 28 N 3rd St | open |
| Sod Restaurant Group, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 261 Locust St | open | |
| Starview Brews | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | 224 Locust St | open | |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 149 N 3rd St | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 1414 Lancaster Ave | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 3975 Columbia Ave | open |
| Sweet treasures | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 242 S 8th St | open | |
| Taco Togo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 243 Locust St | open |
| The Bishop's View | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1600 Lancaster Ave | open |
| The Coffee Grill | Café | Coffee | 237 Locust St | open |
| The Flour Child | Bakery | Bakery | 646 Union St | open |
| The Spot Stop Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 438 Locust St | open | |
| TJ's Philly Style Cheese Steaks and More | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Pizza | 15 S 3rd St | open |
| Trio Bar And Grill | Bar · Casual dining | American | 3707 Marietta Ave | open |
| Turkey Hill Experience | Dessert | Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 301 Linden St | open |
| Union Station Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 173 S 4th St | open |
| Vecchia Sicilia Pizza Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Sandwiches · Pizza | 1786 Columbia Ave | open |
| Verona Pizza & Pasta | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 232 Locust St | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3995 Columbia Ave | open |
| Windy Lindy's Olde Columbia Pretzel Haus | Bakery · Quick service · Food truck | Bakery | 17 S 2nd St | open |
| Y Not Restaurant Group Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3707 Marietta Ave | open | |
| Yang Garden Columbia Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 56 S 18th St | open | |
| Annie B's Italian Ice | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1792 Columbia Ave | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 23 | 18 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 21 | 16 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 28 | 21 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 28 | 21 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 29 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 7 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 25 | 18 | 8 | 10 | — | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 11 | — | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 26 | 20 | 9 | 11 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 28 | 21 | 10 | 11 | — | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 24 | 17 | 8 | 9 | — | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 28 | 22 | 11 | 11 | — | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 33 | 25 | 14 | 11 | — | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 28 | 20 | 9 | 11 | — | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 27 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 26 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 33 | 25 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 31 | 25 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 30 | 24 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 29 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 29 | 23 | 11 | 10 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 29 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 29 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 30 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 30 | 27 | 12 | 11 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 29 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 31 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |