BMIE Market 17406

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,636 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,969 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±473 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,156 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,547 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$83,521 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,555 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,398 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±56 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$234,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,801 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	48.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17406
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-41.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 2–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17406. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.9	77	40%	+30.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.3	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	19.4	19	25%	+4.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,636	84	40%	+33.7
Median household income (ACS)	83,521	66	40%	+26.5
Households (ACS)	8,969	83	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-41.2	8	35%	+2.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.2	94	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	23,636	84	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	83,521	66	20%	+13.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-41.2	8	30%	+2.3
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3670 The Cave	Bar · Quick service		3670 Springetts Dr	open
83 Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5220 N Susquehanna Trl	open
83 Pizza & Travel Plaza	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	5208 N Susquehanna Trail	open
Accomac Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6330 River Dr	open
Becky's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5188 E Prospect Rd	open
Deer Ridge BBQ LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3609 Ridgewood Rd	open
Dietz Produce	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	5974 Lincoln Hwy	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	3245 N Susquehanna Trl	open
Friendly Ice Cream	Restaurant (service type not stated)		600 Barlett Dr	open
Front Porch Tea Room and Gathering Place	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	25 W Market St	open
Gray Apple Market	Café	Coffee	2700 N Susquehanna Trl	open
Hallamshire Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American	480 W Market St	open
Jim and Nena's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	299 W Market St	open
Jim Mack's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5745 Lincoln Hwy	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service		3245 N Susquehanna Trl, Ste A	open
Kelly's Inn	Bar	Seafood · American	1906 N Sherman St	open
Knotty Pine Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		2500 N George St	open
Kreutz Creek Valley VFW Post # 7045	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	341 Yorkanna Rd	open
Lavender Acres Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		4865 Libhart Mill Rd	open
Panther Perk	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	601 Mundis Mill Rd	open
Paradise Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	4265 N Susquehanna Trl	open
Porky's Place BBQ Catering	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4223 Lincoln Hwy	open
Primo Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1425 N Sherman St	open
PRS Bar n Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2350 N George St	open
Red Rose Restaurant & Lounge	Casual dining · Bar	American	5370 Lincoln Hwy	open
Schmidt Baking Co	Bakery	Bakery	170 Derry Ct	open
Starbucks Distribution Center 1605	Coffee shop	Coffee	Bartlett Dr	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3167 N Susquehanna Trl	open
Touch of Italy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	80 W Market St	open
Tourist Inn	Bar		671 W Market St	open
UNFI	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	600 Bartlett Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	125 Cloverleaf Rd	open
Wyndridge Farm Wyndridge Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		885 Arbor Ln	open
Pub On The Trail	Bar		3594 N Susquehanna Trl	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	10	5	2	1	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	11	7	4	1	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	14	10	6	2	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	14	9	4	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	5	3	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	12	8	4	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	13	9	4	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	14	10	4	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	8	4	1	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	16	12	5	4	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	17	13	7	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	18	13	6	5	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	18	14	6	6	2	3	NAICS2007
2011	20	15	6	6	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	20	15	6	6	3	3	NAICS2012
2013	23	17	6	8	3	4	NAICS2012
2014	19	12	5	5	2	5	NAICS2012
2015	21	16	9	5	2	4	NAICS2012
2016	16	11	5	5	1	4	NAICS2012
2017	19	13	6	6	—	5	NAICS2017
2018	18	12	5	6	—	5	NAICS2017
2019	17	11	3	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	15	9	3	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	16	10	4	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	16	11	3	7	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	14	10	3	6	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17406. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17347	2.9 mi	1	2016
17402	4.1 mi	130	2023
17318	4.5 mi	1	2016
17547	4.9 mi	13	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.