BMIE Market 17540

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,728 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±885 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,791 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,518 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$91,895 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,441 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$339,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,328 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17540
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+23.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17540. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.9	73	40%	+29.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.3	70	35%	+24.6
Market Momentum Score	65.0	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,728	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	91,895	75	40%	+30.0
Households (ACS)	3,875	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	45.5	79	35%	+27.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.9	53	25%	+13.3
Population (ACS)	10,728	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	91,895	75	20%	+15.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	45.5	79	30%	+23.7
20-year restaurant growth	23.1	48	20%	+9.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Gourmet Garden Chinese and Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	16 Newport Rd	open
Achenbach's Pastries Inc	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	375 E Main St	open
Amelia's Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		43 Graybill Rd	open
Ark House Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	371 E Main St	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	366 W Main St	open
Byers Butterflake Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	44 W Main St	open
Diane's Deli of Monterey	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	317 Newport Rd	open
DT Tavern	Bar			open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3180 Oregon Pike Hess	open
Eli's Place Of Leola Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		371 E Main St	open
Fox Meadows Creamery - Leola	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	193 E Main St	open
Funck's Funck's Restaurant Leola.PA	Casual dining · Bar	American	365 W Main St	open
Gracie's on West Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	264 W Main St	open
Gracies Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		264 W Main St # A	open
Hayloft Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	95 S Groffdale Rd	open
Helen's Corner Bar & Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining		131 W Main St	open
Italian Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	344 W Main St	open
Joes Famous Wings & Wieners	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Hot dogs	56 W Main St	open
Leola Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	23 W Main St	open
Naruto Hibachi Sushi Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	354 W Main St	open
Osteria Avanti at The Inn at Leola Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	38 Deborah Dr	open
Pizzaiola	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	344 W Main St	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	26 Quarry Ridge Rd	open
Reflections Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1390 Oregon Rd	open
Revive Cafe and Craft llc	Coffee shop	Coffee	65 W Main St	open
Rmds Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		38 Deborah Dr	open
Rosario's Pronto Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	289 W Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	135 W Main St	open
Te'	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	38 Deborah Dr	open
The Log Cabin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	11 Lehoy Forest Dr	open
Wu's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	354 W Main St	open
Pizzaiola	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	344 W Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	16	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	14	8	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	13	9	3	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	10	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	15	13	9	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	17	15	9	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	5	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	6	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	5	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	13	6	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	5	4	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	12	7	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	16	14	7	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	7	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	17	14	8	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	9	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17540. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17508	2.3 mi	1	2015
17505	2.4 mi	4	2023
17501	4.2 mi	2	2016
17576	4.2 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.