BMIE Market 17505

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,358 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	525 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,785 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	517 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,583 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,623 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	20.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,417 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±396 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$324,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±102,277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17505
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	39.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 1–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.81) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17505. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.81, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.1	58	40%	+23.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.4	39	35%	+13.8
Market Momentum Score	24.9	25	25%	+6.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,358	48	40%	+19.1
Median household income (ACS)	96,583	79	40%	+31.5
Households (ACS)	525	37	20%	+7.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	35%	+2.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.0	46	25%	+11.5
Population (ACS)	2,358	48	20%	+9.6
Median household income (ACS)	96,583	79	20%	+15.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 3 · BBQ 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Buffet 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1534875009 Plain & Fan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3121 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Aunt Ruthie's	Coffee shop	Coffee	2710 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Bird in Hand Bakeshop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert · American	542 Gibbons Rd	open
Bird In Hand Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2710 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Bird-in-Hand Bakery and Cafe Bird-In-Hand Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · American	2715 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Bird-in-Hand Family Restaurant & Smorgasbord Bird-In-Hand Bakery & Cafe	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2760 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Bird-in-Hand Family Restaurant & Smorgasbord	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2760 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Blissful Treats Cafe	Café · Dessert	Coffee · Dessert	235 N Ronks Rd	open
Dinner Bell Lunchenette	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches	2710 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Grandma Jack's Gourmet Popcorn	Quick service		2710 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Mary Ann's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3157 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Mazza Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3174 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Rumspringa Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3174 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
S Clyde Weaver	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2710 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Sara - Faye's Soft Pretzels	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	542 Gibbons Rd	open
Smokehouse BBQ and Brews	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian · BBQ	3121 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Smucker	Bakery · Bar	Bakery	2727 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
The Family Cupboard Restaurant & Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3029 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
The Lollipop Shoppe	Dessert		3109 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Uncle Leroy's	Dessert	Dessert	2710 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Village Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	3121 Old Philadelphia Pike	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	6	—	4	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	5	—	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17505. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17576	1.8 mi	2	2016
17540	2.4 mi	16	2023
17508	4.4 mi	1	2015
17602	4.4 mi	90	2023
17572	4.5 mi	4	2023
17534	4.6 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.