BMIE Market 17572
Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 3,643 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±851 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 1,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±226 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 3,859 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 1,251 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $80,804 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,918 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 36.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,015 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $288,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,668 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 16.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17572 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 18.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 7 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17572. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 58.0 | 58 | 40% | +23.2 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 43.4 | 43 | 35% | +15.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 7.4 | 7 | 25% | +1.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 3,643 | 55 | 40% | +22.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 80,804 | 63 | 40% | +25.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 1,208 | 53 | 20% | +10.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -42.9 | 7 | 35% | +2.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.0 | 69 | 25% | +17.1 |
| Population (ACS) | 3,643 | 55 | 20% | +11.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 80,804 | 63 | 20% | +12.6 |
Market Momentum Score: 7 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -42.9 | 7 | 50% | +3.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -42.9 | 7 | 30% | +2.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -33.3 | 9 | 20% | +1.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (27)
By cuisine
American 11 · Coffee 5 · Chicken / wings 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Café 5 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agapē Cafe & Grille | Café · Casual dining · Bar | Coffee · American | 366 Hartman Bridge Rd | open |
| Beiler S Candyland | Dessert · Café | Dessert · Coffee | 345 Lynwood Rd | open |
| Bespoke Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 226 Gap Rd | open | |
| Café 1832 | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Coffee | 305 Gap Rd | open |
| Casey Jones' Restaurant at Paradise Station | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 312 Paradise Ln | open |
| Champs Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 2622 Lincoln Highway E | open |
| Countryside Roadstand | Food truck | 2966 Stumptown Rd | open | |
| Dienner's Country Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2855 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
| DK Smokin' BBQ LLC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 2725 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
| Dutch Haven Shoo-Fly Pie Bakery Dutch Haven Shoo-Fly Pie Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2857 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
| Fisher's Dairy | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 103 S Ronks Rd | open |
| Hershey Rarm Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 300 Hartman Bridge Rd | open | |
| Katie's Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 200 Hartman Bridge Rd | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 2501 Lincoln Highway E | open |
| Latte Luv | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 214 Hartman Bridge Rd | open |
| Linden Coffee | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 2916 Old Philadelphia Pike | open |
| Miller's Smorgasbord | Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2811 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
| Mount Hope Estate Mount Hope Estate & Winery Mansion | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2811 Lincoln Hwy E | open | |
| Pans Hospitality | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2575 Lincoln Hwy E | open | |
| Pizza Hut Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2622 Lincoln Highway East, Ta Express Ronks | open |
| Route 30 Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2575 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
| Strauss Thomas E | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2811 Lincoln Hwy E | open | |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 250 Hartman Bridge Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · Chicken / wings · American | 2622 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
| Sweet Creations Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | 741 Georgetown Rd | open |
| The Kling House Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3579 W Newport Rd | open |
| Vic's Wayside Inn | Casual dining · Bar | American | 2645 Lincoln Hwy E | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 9 | 7 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 8 | 5 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 9 | 6 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 7 | 6 | 3 | — | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 7 | 6 | 3 | — | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 9 | 8 | 3 | — | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 7 | 5 | 3 | — | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 8 | 7 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 8 | 7 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 8 | 7 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 9 | 8 | 5 | — | 2 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 9 | 8 | 4 | — | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 7 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 8 | 7 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 9 | 8 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 10 | 9 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 8 | 7 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 9 | 7 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 6 | 4 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |