BMIE Market 17557

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,055 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±783 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±378 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,811 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,302 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,491 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,788 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,216 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$286,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,023 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17557
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+88.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17557. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.8	72	40%	+28.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.9	63	35%	+22.0
Market Momentum Score	34.8	35	25%	+8.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,055	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	82,491	65	40%	+26.0
Households (ACS)	5,411	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.3	67	25%	+16.8
Population (ACS)	15,055	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	82,491	65	20%	+13.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10.5	18	50%	+9.1
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	30.8	52	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Pizza 9 · American 7 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Other 3 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alouette Cheese Company	Other	Sandwiches	150 W Jackson St	open
Arianna's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	158 E Jackson St	open
Botanical Creperie By Nhcc	Café	Coffee	856 W Main St	open
Brady's Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	856 W Main St	open
Carini's Italian Restaurant Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	633 W Main St	open
China One China One	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	427 W Main St	open
Coffee Donut Trailer	Coffee shop	Coffee	419 W Main St	open
Divine Grind Mobile Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Coffee	1053 E Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	840 W Main St	open
Dutch Country Soft Pretzels	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	2758 Division Hwy	open
Emma's Gourmet Popcorn	Dessert	Dessert	4038 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Fink's French Fries	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	385 Sollenberger Rd	open
Holy Smoked Meats LLC	Food truck	BBQ · Burgers		open
Jim's Specialty Hoagies	Other	Sandwiches	677 W Main St	open
Johnny's Pizza and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	117 E Main St	open
Keyling Fencing	Restaurant (service type not stated)		181 Jalyn Dr	open
Keystone Klub New Holland	Bar		667 W Main St	open
La Casita Restaurant & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		117 E Main St	open
Lapp Valley Farm	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	244 Mentzer Rd	open
Lickity Split Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	209 E Main St	open
Lot 5 GSV	Restaurant (service type not stated)		433 S Kinzer Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	828 W Main St	open
Musik Garten	Bar		512 E Spruce St	open
New Holland Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	832 W Main St	open
New Holland Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	624 W Main St	open
New Holland Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	117 E Main St	open
New Holland VFW Post 7362	Bar		755 Rancks Church Rd	open
Palermo Pizza & Restaurant Palermo Pizzeria Utica,NY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	351 E Main St	open
Panda Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	649 W Main St	open
Pellman Foods Inc	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	122 S Shirk Rd	open
Pj's Steak & Hoagie Shack	Other	Sandwiches · Steakhouse · Pizza	114 E Main St	open
Ritz On Main	Bar		138 E Main St	open
Roma Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	117 E Main St	open
Sal's Pizza & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	920 W Main St	open
Shooters Crossing Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar		88 Diller Ave	open
SquireSide CAFE Coffee Co.	Dessert · Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · American · Tea / bubble tea · Ice cream / frozen desserts	504 E Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	836 W Main St	open
Summit Valley Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		199 Eastern School Rd	open
The Coop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		433 S Kinzer Ave	open
Two Cousins Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	808 E Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	804 W Main St	open
West Nantmeal Twp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese		open
White Oak Ice Company, LLC	Dessert		106 Conestoga Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	6	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	15	6	9	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	13	6	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	15	6	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	21	19	8	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	21	20	9	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	22	20	7	9	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	22	20	6	9	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	20	19	6	10	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	20	18	6	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	18	17	8	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	18	17	7	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	6	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	20	16	6	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	6	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	15	5	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	22	19	6	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	19	6	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	18	7	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	18	7	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	17	5	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17557. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17506	1.5 mi	3	2022
17581	3.8 mi	1	2016
17519	3.8 mi	1	2016
17529	4.4 mi	4	2023
17534	5.0 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.