BMIE Market 17801

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,429 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±503 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,016 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±316 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,671 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,763 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,664 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,491 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$744 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$153,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,908 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17801
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+3.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+3.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-3.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	37 (range 33–40) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17801. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.4	59	40%	+23.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.9	53	35%	+18.5
Market Momentum Score	54.9	55	25%	+13.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,429	78	40%	+31.2
Median household income (ACS)	60,664	31	40%	+12.3
Households (ACS)	7,016	79	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	35%	+20.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.3	42	25%	+10.5
Population (ACS)	16,429	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	60,664	31	20%	+6.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	3.5	60	50%	+29.9
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	30%	+17.7
20-year restaurant growth	3.5	37	20%	+7.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (72)

By cuisine

American 15 · Coffee 8 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Bar 17 · Casual dining 10 · Dessert 10 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 8 · Coffee shop 6 · Specialty food shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Café 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3rd Wind Coffee Co. - Station Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	100 N 3rd St	open
61 PinBar	Bar · Casual dining		1437 PA-61	open
Abrana Marie's Taco Queen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	901 S 2nd St	open
APlus at Sunoco	Coffee shop	Coffee	5045 State Route 890	open
Arch St Bourbon House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		310 Arch St	open
Asian Express Asian Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	600 Market St	open
B&G's Spot	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	438 Market St	open
Babycakes Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9180 State Route 147	open
Boondocks Wood Fired Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	5066 PA-890	open
Bottleworks	Casual dining · Bar		1139 N 4th St	open
Boxcar Restaurant and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Casual dining	American	318 Market St	open
Brass Key	Bar		200 Reagan St	open
Bua Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		339 Market St	open
Bubba Joe's Smoke BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	15 S Main St S	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	60 North 4th Street	open
Butter Krust Baking Co	Bakery	Bakery	249 N 11th St	open
Chestnut St. Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	550 Chestnut St	open
Dalvino Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		716 Furman Rd	open
DANLEYS HOTEL	Bar		17 N 3rd St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	164 Shikellamy Avenue	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1315 Market St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1183 N 4th St	open
Dynamic Wings Express	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	901 Market St	open
Eclipse Craft Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		249 Market St	open
El Fogon Santana	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		318 Market St	open
El Limon Mexican Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	266 Market St	open
Elks Lodge No. 267	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	26 S 2nd St	open
Fresh Roasted Coffee LLC	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1136 Walnut St Extension	open
gabriela's pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2079 Brush Valley Rd	open
Giugi's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	320 Packer St	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	322 Market St	open
Hollenbach's By The Wall	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	132 S Front St	open
Iron Vines Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		322 Raspberry Ave	open
ITALIAN TERRACE	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	300 Bridge Ave	open
IV Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	100 N 3rd St	open
Jay's Tiffany's Northside	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	910 N 4th St	open
Jo Jo's Scoops and Sprinkles	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	252 N 11th St	open
KND's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	262 S 4th St	open
Laughters	Bar		123 S 3rd St	open
Little Addy's Inc	Café	Coffee	314 Market St	open
Mama G's Bakery	Bakery · Food truck	Bakery	436 Market St	open
Marlin's Sub Shop	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	728 Market St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		1183 N 4th St	open
Mimmo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2079 Brush Valley Rd	open
Original Italian Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	339 Market St	open
Paulie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	916 Walnut St	open
Pelican's SnoBalls Pelican's SnoBalls- Jax Beach	Dessert	Dessert	152 Shikellamy Ave	open
Penn's Tavern Historical Waterfront Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	113 River Rd	open
Penns Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		113 S River Ave	open
Pop Snyder's Lunch	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	248 Market St	open
Snyders By The Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Casual dining	American · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1551 Market St	open
Spyglass on the Ridge Winery & Restaurant	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		109 Carroll Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	226 Market St	open
Sugar Bound Ice Cream Co	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	338 Market St	open
Sugar Cat Gluten Free Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	436 Market St	open
Sunbury CSG Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	330 B N 2nd St	open
Sunbury Sub Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	712 Market St	open
Sweet Beaters Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	356 Market St	open
Sweet Chaos (formerly Hurr’s Dairy)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	901 Market St	open
TD's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	70 N 4th St	open
The Diner and Bingo	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	427 Market St	open
The Duck In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs · American	453 Woodlawn Ave	open
The Hound and The Moon Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	338 Market St	open
The North Pole	Bar			open
The Packer House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24 N 3rd St	open
Three Beards Brewing	Brewery / taproom		109 Carroll Rd	open
Top Hat	Bar		202 Church St	open
VFW Post 1532	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		141 Shikellamy Ave	open
Wake & Wire Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	235 Market St # 1	open
Whispering Oaks Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1306 PA-61	open
Zig's Subs and Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza · American	300 Walnut St	open
McGuigan's Public House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		266 Market St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	38	31	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	33	26	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1996	42	32	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1997	41	32	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1998	40	30	14	13	3	9	NAICS1997
1999	40	28	13	12	3	9	NAICS1997
2000	39	27	15	11	1	10	NAICS1997
2001	44	31	14	15	2	10	NAICS1997
2002	40	29	14	13	2	9	NAICS1997
2003	38	29	13	15	1	8	NAICS2002
2004	40	31	13	15	3	8	NAICS2002
2005	35	28	12	13	3	6	NAICS2002
2006	39	30	12	17	1	8	NAICS2002
2007	41	31	13	15	3	8	NAICS2002
2008	39	29	13	13	3	7	NAICS2007
2009	38	29	14	12	3	6	NAICS2007
2010	33	25	13	10	2	6	NAICS2007
2011	31	23	12	10	1	6	NAICS2007
2012	34	26	15	11	—	5	NAICS2012
2013	32	26	14	12	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	32	27	14	12	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	27	24	11	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	29	25	12	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	32	27	13	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	34	29	15	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	31	15	12	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	36	30	14	11	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	40	32	14	12	6	3	NAICS2017
2022	40	34	17	12	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	30	17	10	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17801. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17876	3.7 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.