BMIE Market 17851

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,234 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,011 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,841 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,549 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$53,637 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,948 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$751 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$79,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17851
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-35.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-43.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17851. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.7	48	40%	+19.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.9	38	35%	+13.3
Market Momentum Score	13.0	13	25%	+3.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,234	66	40%	+26.4
Median household income (ACS)	53,637	20	40%	+7.9
Households (ACS)	3,011	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.4	63	25%	+15.7
Population (ACS)	7,234	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	53,637	20	20%	+4.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	-35.7	8	20%	+1.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Bakery 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Legion Mount Carmel	Bar		48 West Ave	open
China Bowl and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	115 S Oak St	open
Cinnamon Stix Coffee & Gift	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8 E 4th St	open
Clover Hose Co.	Bar		301 S Oak St	open
Conclave Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	231 W Girard St	open
Dorko's Cafe	Casual dining · Bar		300 W 4th St	open
Firehouse II	Casual dining · Bar		347 E Water St	open
Firehouse II Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	34 N Oak St	open
Food Junkie	Food truck · Dessert · Catering	Dessert	335 E 5th St	open
Frosty Bites	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	19 W 3rd St	open
Frosty Penguin	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	193 Front St	open
Hollywood Pizza	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Bakery	39 N Oak St	open
Mattucci's Willow Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	451 W 4th St	open
MC Coney	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	50 N Oak St	open
Moss Garden Bakery & Café	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	211 S Oak St	open
Northeast Restaurant Equipment	Restaurant (service type not stated)		151 S Hickory St	open
Original Italian Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3 S Oak St	open
Pepe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		51 S Chestnut St	open
Pepe's Famous Italian Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	51 S Chestnut St	open
Pop's Original Screamer Sauce	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Juice / smoothies	131 N Chestnut St	open
Schicky's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	34 N Oak St	open
Shaulinski's Bar	Bar		201 S Market St	open
Sheila's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	26 S Oak St	open
Sons Of Poland	Bar		21 N Oak St	open
The Greek Isle Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 N Oak St	open
Tornado Tavern	Bar	American	16 W 5th St	open
Tuxedo Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar			open
Village Towne Restaurant & Banquet Hall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11183 PA-61	open
Village Towne Restaurant & Catering Hall	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10 E State Route 61	open
Vine Street Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	150 W 2nd St	open
WEAC	Bar		301 N Vine St	open
Winkie's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	120 E 3rd St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	17	13	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	16	13	7	3	3	3	NAICS1997
1999	16	12	6	2	4	3	NAICS1997
2000	17	13	7	2	4	3	NAICS1997
2001	19	15	8	3	4	3	NAICS1997
2002	19	14	7	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	18	14	8	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	14	7	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	12	7	3	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	15	10	6	2	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	14	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	15	10	7	2	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	14	9	6	2	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	14	10	7	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	15	10	6	3	1	4	NAICS2007
2012	16	10	6	4	—	5	NAICS2012
2013	16	11	7	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2014	16	11	7	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	17	12	8	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2016	15	11	6	5	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	14	10	5	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	15	11	5	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	14	10	4	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	12	8	—	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	9	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17851. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17832	1.6 mi	1	2016
17840	2.0 mi	1	1998
17888	2.6 mi	—
17834	2.7 mi	5	2023
17858	2.7 mi	—
17945	2.8 mi	1	1997
17943	3.7 mi	1	2011
17921	4.9 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.