BMIE Market 17921

Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,931 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±524 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,455 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±226 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,676 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,227 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,141 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$768 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$149,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,850 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17921
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	8 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17921. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.5	58	40%	+23.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.0	45	35%	+15.8
Market Momentum Score	7.7	8	25%	+1.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,931	65	40%	+26.1
Median household income (ACS)	71,141	49	40%	+19.5
Households (ACS)	2,455	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-40	8	35%	+2.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	6,931	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	71,141	49	20%	+9.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 8 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-40	7	50%	+3.5
10-year restaurant growth	-40	8	30%	+2.4
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 5 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Japanese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ashland Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	308 Centre St	open
Ashland Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	221 W Centre St	open
Bella Luna Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	105 Main St	open
Best Ever Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	325 Peter St	open
China III	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	937 Centre St	open
Danny's Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	630 S Hoffman Blvd	open
Devito's Italian Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	508 Centre St	open
Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Breakfast · Bakery	900 Centre St	open
Fabrizio's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1609 Centre St	open
Fat Bellies	Casual dining · Bar	American	1314 Centre St	open
Gal's Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining		238 E Centre St	open
High-way Star	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1391 Taylorsville Rd	open
Love Noodle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	1017 Arch St	open
Mays Drive-In Restaurant May's Drive In Ashland	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2105 Centre St	open
Mineshaft cafe	Café	Coffee	1120 Centre St	open
Playing with Sugar	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	303 Hobart St	open
Pop's Original	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	508 Centre St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	801 W Centre St	open
Sully's Island	Bar		8 Elmer St	open
White Foods, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		801 Centre St	open
Pasta House Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	508 Centre St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	13	10	6	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	8	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	14	11	7	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	15	11	7	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	14	10	7	3	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	11	7	4	3	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	12	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	13	8	3	5	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	15	9	5	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2013	17	10	7	3	—	4	NAICS2012
2014	17	10	7	3	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	16	10	6	4	—	3	NAICS2012
2016	17	10	5	5	—	4	NAICS2012
2017	17	10	4	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	17	10	4	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	14	8	4	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	11	6	3	3	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	10	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17921. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17936	1.1 mi	1	2008
17943	1.2 mi	1	2011
17945	2.5 mi	1	1997
17840	3.8 mi	1	1998
17920	4.5 mi	1	2000
17888	4.8 mi	—
17851	4.9 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.