BMIE Market 17866

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,769 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,575 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,310 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,181 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$51,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,494 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$745 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$88,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,666 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17866
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17866. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.5	48	40%	+19.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.7	42	35%	+14.6
Market Momentum Score	60.7	61	25%	+15.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,769	70	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	51,010	16	40%	+6.4
Households (ACS)	3,575	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.2	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	9,769	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	51,010	16	20%	+3.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Mexican 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Buffet 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annabelle’s restaurant llc	Casual dining	American	1663 Trevorton Rd	open
Bottleworks	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9353 State Route 61	open
Brewser's SportsGrille	Casual dining · Bar		839 W Water St	open
Buona Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9349 State Route 61	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	8768 State Route 61	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8488 Pa-61	open
Nos'Trovia	Bar		1000 W State St	open
Palmer's Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2450 PA-61	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	290 Luke Fidler Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9349 State Route 61	open
Rancho Azteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9353 PA-61	open
Rita's Bakeshop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	850 W Arch St	open
Spangenberg's Family Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	640 Center St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3300 State Rte 61	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9343 PA-61	open
Tharptown General Store & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	335 Center St	open
The Clubhouse	Bar · Casual dining		1027 E Race St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9300 State Route 61	open
Yummy Buffet	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9351 PA-61	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	6	1	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	1	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	7	2	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	3	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	2	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17866. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17836	4.0 mi	1	1999
17860	4.7 mi	3	2023
17881	4.8 mi	2	2016
17872	4.9 mi	16	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.