BMIE Market 17872

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,894 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±258 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,943 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,681 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$48,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,400 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$824 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$81,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,953 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17872
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-23.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	34 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17872. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.1	47	40%	+18.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	32.6	33	35%	+11.4
Market Momentum Score	13.7	14	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,894	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	48,750	13	40%	+5.3
Households (ACS)	3,935	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.0	43	25%	+10.7
Population (ACS)	8,894	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	48,750	13	20%	+2.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	-23.8	12	20%	+2.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (53)

By cuisine

Pizza 10 · American 9 · Coffee 8 · Italian 6 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Bar 17 · Casual dining 9 · Café 6 · Quick service 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ale House Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		147 E Independence St	open
B & C Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	602 W Walnut St	open
Bahama Sno Shack	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	600 W Arch St	open
Bamse Coffee And Roaster	Café	Coffee	150 E Lincoln St	open
Bates Road Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		188 Bates Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service		45 N 4th St	open
Chillers	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	134 E Independence St	open
Coal Region Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		516 W Chestnut St	open
Coney Island Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	218 E Independence St	open
Covered Bridge Brewhaus	Brewery / taproom · Bar		506 N 8th St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	715 N Shamokin St	open
Doogie's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	500 S Market St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	200 W Sunbury St	open
Firehouse Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		211 E Sunbury St	open
Fisher's Boston Pierogies	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	401 N Shamokin St	open
G Lounge	Bar		301 S Vine St	open
Gdk Development, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		45 N 4th St # 45	open
Givanni's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	616 W Chestnut St	open
Harry's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14 N Market St	open
Heritage Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		52 N Market St	open
Hillside Convenience	Casual dining · Bar			open
Home Plate	Bar · Casual dining		4 S 2nd St	open
James' Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Pizza · Coffee	524 E Pine St	open
Janie's Cafe.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Coffee	615 N Shamokin St	open
Kelsey's Hoagies	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	545 N 6th St	open
Krazy Rid3rz Kitchen	Casual dining	Burgers · American	309 W Chestnut St	open
Loyal Order Of Moose Loyal Order of Moose	Casual dining · Bar		511 N Rock St	open
Luna's Pizzeria Shamokin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	101 E Independence St	open
Market Street Billiards	Bar		30 S Market St	open
Maurer's Dairy & Ice Cream Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	34 S Market St	open
Ming Guan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	46 E Independence St	open
Mr. Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	327 W Spruce St	open
OIP Shamokin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	150 E Independence St	open
Oliver's Cigar Lounge	Bar		144 E Independence St	open
Pat's New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	101 E Independence St	open
Picarelli's Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		236 W Independence St	open
Redmen Club	Bar		33 S Market St	open
Rob's Six Pack Shack	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	257 S Market St	open
Smokin N Shamokin	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		34 S Market St	open
Snappers	Bar · Casual dining		501 N Shamokin St	open
Snyder's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	41 N 2nd St	open
Sons of Italy	Bar		619 N Shamokin St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	111 W. Independence St	open
Sweet Tooth Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 E Independence St	open
The 2nd Floor	Bar	Pizza	603 N Shamokin St	open
The Messy Napkin	Restaurant (service type not stated)		631 E CHESTNUT St	open
The Overflowing Cup	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	525 W Chestnut St	open
Thyme & Table	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	100 E Independence St	open
Tiffany Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		58 E Independence St	open
Two Guys From Italy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	156 State Rte 2026	open
Wayside Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6638 PA-61	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	33 E. Independence Avenue	open
WhatNot Shoppe Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	700 N Shamokin St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	24	20	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	23	19	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	22	17	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	27	21	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	26	21	11	8	2	5	NAICS1997
1999	26	19	10	8	1	6	NAICS1997
2000	30	19	10	8	1	8	NAICS1997
2001	30	21	12	8	1	7	NAICS1997
2002	28	20	10	9	1	7	NAICS1997
2003	28	21	11	8	2	7	NAICS2002
2004	28	21	11	8	2	7	NAICS2002
2005	31	21	10	8	3	10	NAICS2002
2006	30	24	10	10	4	6	NAICS2002
2007	27	22	11	7	4	5	NAICS2002
2008	27	21	12	6	3	6	NAICS2007
2009	23	17	7	6	4	6	NAICS2007
2010	21	17	6	7	4	4	NAICS2007
2011	22	20	9	8	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	23	20	8	8	4	3	NAICS2012
2013	24	19	8	8	3	5	NAICS2012
2014	23	18	7	8	3	5	NAICS2012
2015	23	19	8	8	3	4	NAICS2012
2016	23	20	10	8	2	3	NAICS2012
2017	23	20	10	9	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	23	20	8	11	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	22	20	8	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	22	10	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	18	8	8	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17872. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17881	1.6 mi	2	2016
17867	3.0 mi	—
17823	4.8 mi	—
17866	4.9 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.