BMIE Market 19311

Chester County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,692 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,619 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±324 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,584 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,729 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$155,771 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,496 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,483 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±204 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$540,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,312 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 19311
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.25) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 19311. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.25, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.8	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64	64	35%	+22.4
Market Momentum Score	62.3	62	25%	+15.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,692	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	155,771	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	3,619	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.3	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	11,692	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	155,771	97	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 5 · Mexican 4 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 6 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Avondale Natural Foods	Café	Coffee	122 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Be Here Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		122 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Bravo Pizza of Avondale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	817 Gap Newport Pike	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	560 Hepburn Rd	open
Chadds Ford Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		400 Industrial Dr	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	77A Baltimore Pike	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	79 Baltimore Pike	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	81 Baltimore Pike	open
Earl's Sub Shop	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	79 W State St	open
El Mercadito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	72 Baltimore Pike	open
Fiesta Fountains	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	118 Whitney Dr	open
Hooters	Bar		1110 Baltimore Pike	open
Il Giardino Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	9173 Gap Newport Pike	open
Inniscrone	Bar		11 Strand Rd	open
La nueva Plazita	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	525 Gap Newport Pike	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	8955 Gap Newport Pike	open
On The Roll Inc.	Food truck · Catering		429 Buck Toe Rd	open
Paleteria Y Neveria Manantial	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9149 Gap Newport Pike	open
Penn Brew 19311	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	82 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Perkins at 954 Gap Newport Pike Avondale, PA Perkins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	954 Gap Newport Pike	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery Perkins American Food Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	954 Gap Newport Pike	open
Philly Pretzel Factory Philly Pretzel Factory	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	901 Gap Newport Pike	open
Sake Hana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	801 Gap Newport Pike	open
Sake Hana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	801 Gap Newport Pike	open
Snacks la plazita	Restaurant (service type not stated)		525 Gap Newport Pike	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	909 Gap Newport Pike Bldg 1a	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Breakfast	764 Gap Newport Pike	open
Taqueria Moroleon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9173 Gap Newport Rd	open
Taquitos Magy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1056 Gap Newport Pike	open
The Barrel by Brothers Kershner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		122 Pennsylvania Ave	open
The Greathouse Restaurant At The Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	514 McCue Rd	open
Va La Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8822 Gap Newport Rd	open
Wayback Burgers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	807 Gap Newport Pike	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	14	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 19311. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
19374	1.2 mi	4	2023
19390	3.9 mi	22	2023
19348	4.1 mi	65	2023
19350	4.4 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.