BMIE Market 19945

Sussex County, Delaware · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,640 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±887 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,960 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,862 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,936 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,638 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,148 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±113 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$443,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,464 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	62.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 19945
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.72) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 19945. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.72, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Delaware and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 57, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.9	86	35%	+30.1
Market Momentum Score	94.2	94	25%	+23.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,640	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	87,638	71	40%	+28.4
Households (ACS)	3,960	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	400	100	35%	+34.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.2	91	25%	+22.8
Population (ACS)	9,640	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	87,638	71	20%	+14.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	400	100	30%	+29.9
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Café 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Brothers Pizza & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	36125 Zion Church Rd	open
Alma Sana	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies		open
Bailey's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	28653 Road 405	open
Cold University Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		32858 Substation Rd	open
Crazee Crab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	34051 DuPont Highway &, Hickory St	open
El Gran Charro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	34051 Dupont Blvd	open
El Molcajete Mini Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	34051 Dupont Blvd	open
Frankford Family Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	34067 Dupont Blvd	open
Frankford Feed Mill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches · Burgers	11 Daisey St	open
King's Tiki	Bar			open
Mike and Cindys Last Resort Patio & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		36132 White Oak Dr	open
Ruth Chris Steak House Ocean City Md	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	Tender Blossom Trl	open
Salted Vines Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		32512 Blackwater Rd	open
The Bloated Goat Garage Bar	Casual dining · Bar		25892 Copperhead Xing	open
Wilde Coffee Company	Café	Coffee	33480 Toolman Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2011	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2023	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 19945. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
19975	3.9 mi	22	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.