BMIE Market 19975

Sussex County, Delaware · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,862 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±681 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,085 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±409 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,253 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,664 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,568 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,012 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	59.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,037 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±226 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$462,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,409 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 19975
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+4.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+69.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 19–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.31) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 19975. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.31, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Delaware and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 57, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.5	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.3	55	35%	+19.3
Market Momentum Score	41.4	41	25%	+10.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,862	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	88,568	72	40%	+28.8
Households (ACS)	5,085	75	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	4.8	50	35%	+17.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.3	37	25%	+9.2
Population (ACS)	10,862	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	88,568	72	20%	+14.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.4	23	50%	+11.6
10-year restaurant growth	4.8	50	30%	+14.9
20-year restaurant growth	69.2	74	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (71)

By cuisine

Seafood 9 · American 8 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Italian 6 · Latin American (other) 5 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Breakfast 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Cuban 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 47 · Bar 12 · Dessert 8 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Food truck 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angle Discoverry TV	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	38931 Madison Ave	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	38452 Dupont Blvd. S Dupont & Rd 399	open
Bayside Pizza Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	31225 Americana Pkwy	open
Cabana Restaurant \| Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	38188 Dupont Blvd	open
Cactus Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	Dupont Boulevard	open
Cactus Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36666 Bluewater Run W Unit 4	open
Captain Mac's Fish House & Seafood Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	37320 Lighthouse Rd	open
Caroline&apos S Spa &amp Goods Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		46 N Main St	open
China Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	36666 W Bluewater Run	open
Chinatown Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	11 Mason Dixon Shopping Center	open
Country Side Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	37242 Lighthouse Rd	open
Cove at Bayside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	31806 Lakeview Dr	open
Crabby Matty's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Seafood	36345 Lighthouse Rd	open
Crabcake Factory Bayside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	37314 Lighthouse Rd	open
Daybreak Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	37427 Gateway Ln	open
Delaburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	13 W Church St	open
Dot Discount Stores #114	Bar		38223 DuPont Blvd	open
Doyles Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	38218 Dupont Blvd	open
Doyles Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		RR	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	36450 Tidal Rd Unit 1	open
Fenwick Ice Co.	Dessert	Dessert	36773 Lighthouse Rd	open
Fenwick Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		38016 Fenwick Shoals Blvd	open
Fins Ale House and Raw Bar FINS Ale House and Raw Bar - Coastal Highway	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	37234 Lighthouse Rd	open
Flaming Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	38555 DuPont Blvd	open
Foxs	Bar		Route 54	open
Georgeo's Water Ice Inc	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5 Discovery Ln	open
Georgia House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 E Church St	open
Grumpy G's LLC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		32971 Lighthouse Rd	open
Hometown Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	31225 Americana Parkway	open
Jd Cuban Bites Page	Food truck	Cuban · Sandwiches	38478 Dupont Blvd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Other	Sandwiches	37463 Lion Dr	open
Joe’s Bent Spoon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		38223 DuPont Blvd	open
Johnson Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		38555 Dupont Blvd Unit B	open
Juice Box Juicebox	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	31264 Americana Pkwy	open
Ken's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	37232 Lighthouse Rd	open
La Michoacana	Bakery	Mexican · Bakery	84 Church St	open
La Sierra Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	58 Church St	open
Lemon Drop Martini Bar	Bar		36403 Roxana Rd	open
Little Italy Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	14 W Church St	open
Lower Deck Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Luca’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	37031 Old Mill Bridge Rd	open
Luca’s Pizza Delaware	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Luna's Cactus Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	36666 W Bluewater Run	open
Margarita Mike’s	Bar		564 Salty Dog Trl	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	38215 Dupont Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	36218 Lighthouse Rd	open
Mio Fratello	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Steakhouse	38016 Fenwick Shoals Blvd	open
On The Way Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	38555 Dupont Blvd	open
Papa Grandes Coastal Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	38929 Madison Ave	open
Pizza Palace III	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	38394 Dupont Blvd	open
Plaza Tapatía Fenwick	Restaurant (service type not stated)		38015 Fenwick Shoals Blvd	open
Rippons Seafood West Fenwick	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	36644 Lighthouse Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	38016 Fenwick Shoals Blvd	open
Selbyville Pit & Pub	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	38223 Dupont Blvd	open
Selbyville, DE - Fox's Pizza Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	31225 Americana Parkway, Selbyville, DE 19975	open
Smuggler's Cove Bar & Grill Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		33195 Lighthouse Rd	open
Soulspoon Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13 W Church St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	36656 Lighthouse Road	open
Sweet Disposition	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	38290 London Ave #2	open
Taste of south philly	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	37031 Old Mill Bridge Rd	open
Teresita Market LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	38394 Dupont Blvd	open
The Blue Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	31225 Americana Pkwy Unit 4	open
The Lobster Shanty	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	37310 Lighthouse Rd	open
The Original Fractured Prune	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	36666 Bluewater Run W	open
The Point At Bayside	Bar			open
The Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		36666 W Bluewater Run	open
Tienda y Taqueria Tacana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	38224 Dupont Blvd	open
Yellowfin's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	33195 Lighthouse Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	31221 Americana Parkway	open
Bayville Bakery Llc	Bakery	Bakery	37232 Lighthouse Rd	closed
Billy's Subs And Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	38015 Fenwick Shoals Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	12	6	6	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	14	11	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	13	10	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	11	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	20	18	10	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	17	12	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	17	11	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	20	12	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	21	13	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	22	21	14	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	12	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	16	11	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	19	14	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	21	16	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	23	16	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	21	14	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	20	12	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	19	11	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	23	14	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	22	10	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 19975. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21813	3.2 mi	5	2023
19945	3.9 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.