BMIE Market 20015

District of Columbia, District of Columbia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,653 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,337 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±403 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,332 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,756 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,234 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,245,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±60,259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20015
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-4.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 15–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. District of Columbia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 30, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.4	86	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.0	70	35%	+24.5
Market Momentum Score	28.6	29	25%	+7.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,653	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	6,337	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.8	61	25%	+15.3
Population (ACS)	15,653	77	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+16.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

American 8 · Sandwiches 6 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Other 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2D Noodles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4513 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Alley Cat DC	Bar		5247 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
American City Diner	Casual dining	American	5532 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Aura Bar & Grill	Bar		5247 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Ben & Jerry's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5612 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	5545 Connecticut Ave NW	open
BirdSong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	5507 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Blue 44 Restaurant And Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5507 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Booeymonger	Other · Specialty food shop · Dessert · Quick service	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	5252 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Bread & Chocolate Bread & Chocolate	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	5542 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Capital Crab & Seafood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5534 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Chadwick's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	5247 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Cheesecake Factory Restaurants, Inc. (the)	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5345 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Civil Cigar Lounge	Bar		5335 Wisconsin Avenue NW	open
Cosi	Other	Sandwiches	5252 Wisconsin Avenue, NW	open
Due South	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	5708 Connecticut	open
Gordon Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5600 Connecticut Ave NW	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5333 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Jetties Jetties	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5632 Connecticut Ave NW	open
June B Sweet	Dessert	Dessert	3807 McKinley St NW	open
Kron Chocolatier	Dessert	Dessert	5300 Wisconsin Ave NW Ste 3B	open
Lunchbox	Other	Sandwiches	5335 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Macon Bistro & Larder	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5520 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Macon-dc Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5520 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Maggiano's Little Italy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5333 Wisconsin Ave. NW.	open
Mamma Lucia’s Pizza and Mamma’s Bagels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5504 Connecticut Ave NW	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5300 Wisconsin Ave	open
Opal	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5534 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Parthenon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	5510 Connecticut Ave NW	open
PRESIDENTIALMUSEUMS.COM	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6200 Oregon Ave NW 0443	open
Public Bar Tenley	Bar		4611 41st St NW	open
Pumpernickels Bagel & Deli	Bakery	Bakery	5504 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Range	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5335 Wisconsin Ave NW	open
Real Nutritious Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	5534 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Red Velvet Cupcakery	Café · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Pizza · Dessert · Coffee	5600 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5335 Wisconsin Ave NW # Chevy Chas	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5500 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5616 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5300 Wisconsin Ave Nw Ste 7	open
Sylhet Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5616 Connecticut Ave NW	open
The Avenue	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5540 Connecticut Ave NW	open
Wheelhouse DC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5714 Connecticut Ave NW	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	21	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	24	23	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	27	26	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	27	26	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	29	23	12	6	4	1	NAICS1997
1999	28	23	12	6	4	—	NAICS1997
2000	31	25	11	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	26	21	9	5	6	—	NAICS1997
2002	30	23	9	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2003	27	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	22	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	25	18	7	7	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	25	18	8	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	26	20	10	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	27	20	11	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	27	20	10	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	27	21	11	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	25	19	10	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	29	22	12	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	25	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	28	21	12	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	28	21	12	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	28	21	12	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	31	24	12	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	32	25	13	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	22	11	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	19	7	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	17	7	6	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	26	20	9	6	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20015. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20815	1.6 mi	37	2023
20012	1.7 mi	16	2023
20011	2.1 mi	77	2023
20008	2.2 mi	67	2023
20542	2.4 mi	—
20016	2.7 mi	60	2023
20910	2.7 mi	134	2023
20010	2.8 mi	92	2023
20889	3.0 mi	4	2023
20894	3.1 mi	1	2014
20912	3.2 mi	42	2023
20317	3.2 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.