BMIE Market 20815

Montgomery County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,505 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,577 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,937 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±593 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,082 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,850 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$194,971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,837 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,488 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,294,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,200 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	37 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20815
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+54.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+105.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 29–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20815. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.3	93	40%	+37.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.9	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	59.2	59	25%	+14.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,505	89	40%	+35.7
Median household income (ACS)	194,971	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	12,937	91	20%	+18.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.1	64	25%	+16.0
Population (ACS)	30,505	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	194,971	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.1	70	50%	+35.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	54.2	69	20%	+13.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (66)

By cuisine

Coffee 14 · American 11 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Italian 5 · Japanese 5 · Chinese 4 · European 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Sushi 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Thai 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · French 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 49 · Café 11 · Coffee shop 8 · Bakery 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5th floor cafe	Café	Coffee	5530 Wisconsin Ave	open
Alfio's La Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	4515 Willard Ave	open
Apple-dc Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5404 Wisconsin Ave Ste 800	open
B&B Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	5454 Wisconsin Ave	open
Baskin-robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4533 Stanford St	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5000 Bradley Blvd	open
Berrybluebakes	Bakery	Bakery	5425 Wisconsin Ave	open
Capital Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Chinese · Japanese	3815 Club Dr	open
Chesapeake Chicken and Rockin' Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7007 Wisconsin Ave	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4471 Willard Ave	open
City Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7015 Wisconsin Ave.	open
Clyde's of Chevy Chase Clyde's of Columbia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5441 Wisconsin Ave	open
Craft Beer & Wine	Bar		4459 b Willard Ave	open
Dok Khao Thai Chevy Chase DOK KHAO THAI EATERY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	8551 Connecticut Ave Ste 201	open
Don Pollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	7007 Wisconsin Ave	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	8500 Connecticut Ave	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2 Wisconsin Circle Ste 100	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	8542 Connecticut Ave Ste A	open
Elena James	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	8551 Connecticut Ave	open
Golden City	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7026 Wisconsin Ave	open
House Of Foong Lin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4613 Willow Ln	open
Indique Heights	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	2 Wisconsin Cir	open
Joy by Seven Reasons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	5471 Wisconsin Ave	open
Junction Bistro, Bar & Bakery Chevy Chase	Casual dining		5471 Wisconsin Ave Ste 206b	open
La Ferme Restaurant La Ferme	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	7101 Brookville Rd	open
Le Pain Quotidien	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5310 Western Ave	open
Lia's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	4435 Willard Ave	open
Little Beet Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5471 Wisconsin Ave	open
M Cafe Bar At The Collection At Chevy Chase	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5471 Wisconsin Ave	open
Maki Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6831 Wisconsin Ave #300	open
Meiwah Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	4457 Willard Ave	open
Midtown Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5300 Western Ave	open
Moby Dick House of Kabob Moby Dick House of Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	7023 Wisconsin Ave	open
Nespresso Boutique	Coffee shop	Coffee	5300 Western Ave	open
Olympia Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · American · Coffee	7021 Brookville Rd	open
P.F. Chang's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5406 Wisconsin Ave Ste B	open
Panda Touch Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 Wisconsin Cir	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	4459 Willard Ave	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	7200 47th St	open
Paper Chase	Bar		7011 Meadow Ln	open
Passion Food Eight, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7187 Woodmont Ave	open
Persimmon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7003 Wisconsin Ave	open
Pizza Zone Of Chevy Chase Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		19 Wisconsin Cir	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	8525 Chevy Chase Lake Terrace	open
Potbelly Sandwich Shop Potbelly Sandwich Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4459 Willard Ave	open
Potomac Pizza Potomac Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	19 Wisconsin Cir	open
Saveur India	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	6831 Wisconsin Ave	open
Shibuya Eatery Shibuya Sushi Florești	Quick service	Japanese · Asian	4461 Willard Ave	open
Silver	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7150 Woodmont Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	8542 Connecticut Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	6831 Wisconsin Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5454 Wisconsin Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5000 Bradley Blvd	open
Stromboli Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	7023 Wisconsin Ave	open
Sushiko Chevy Chase	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5455 Wisconsin Ave	open
Sweet Teensy Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1 Wisconsin Cir	open
Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4420 Willard Ave	open
Tavira Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · Mediterranean · European	8401 Connecticut Ave	open
The Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	5520 Wisconsin Ave	open
The Capital Grille The Capital Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	5310 Western Ave	open
The Charmery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8551 Connecticut Ave Apt 202	open
The Hunter's Hound	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	5471 Wisconsin Ave Ste a	open
The Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	7015 Wisconsin Ave	open
True Food Kitchen True Food Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · American	7100 Wisconsin Ave	open
Turncoat	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5406 Wisconsin Ave Ste A	open
Uncorked Chevy Chase	Bar		8525 Chevy Chase Lake Terrace	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	32	32	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	28	23	12	7	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	25	23	12	7	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	22	20	11	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	24	22	10	8	4	—	NAICS1997
2002	24	22	10	8	4	—	NAICS1997
2003	26	24	10	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	32	29	12	12	5	—	NAICS2002
2005	28	26	11	11	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	29	25	10	10	5	—	NAICS2002
2007	37	32	15	13	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	31	26	15	6	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	36	30	16	6	8	—	NAICS2007
2010	40	34	21	6	7	—	NAICS2007
2011	39	35	22	7	6	—	NAICS2007
2012	40	35	17	11	7	1	NAICS2012
2013	43	37	17	13	7	1	NAICS2012
2014	38	33	15	11	7	1	NAICS2012
2015	40	35	16	12	7	1	NAICS2012
2016	40	35	16	11	8	1	NAICS2012
2017	40	35	17	14	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	38	33	16	13	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	30	15	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	41	35	15	15	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	32	16	11	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	36	34	18	11	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	37	20	11	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20815. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20889	1.5 mi	4	2023
20894	1.5 mi	1	2014
20015	1.6 mi	20	2023
20892	1.8 mi	1	2011
20814	2.0 mi	149	2023
20012	2.6 mi	16	2023
20910	2.7 mi	134	2023
20816	2.8 mi	14	2023
20895	3.0 mi	24	2023
20016	3.3 mi	60	2023
20008	3.5 mi	67	2023
20812	3.6 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.