BMIE Market 20111
Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 38,124 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 11,816 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±391 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 30,590 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,074 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $113,879 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,000 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 35.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,066 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±99 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $476,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,074 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 16.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20111 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 8.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +2.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +800.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 37 (range 32–41) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20111. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 90.3 | 90 | 40% | +36.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 73.5 | 73 | 35% | +25.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 60.5 | 61 | 25% | +15.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 38,124 | 93 | 40% | +37.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 113,879 | 88 | 40% | +35.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 11,816 | 89 | 20% | +17.8 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 9.1 | 53 | 35% | +18.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.4 | 74 | 25% | +18.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 38,124 | 93 | 20% | +18.6 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 113,879 | 88 | 20% | +17.6 |
Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 2.9 | 59 | 50% | +29.6 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 9.1 | 53 | 30% | +16.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 71.4 | 75 | 20% | +15.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (104)
By cuisine
Mexican 22 · Latin American (other) 19 · American 12 · Bakery 8 · Asian 7 · Coffee 7 · Juice / smoothies 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Dessert 4 · Peruvian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · BBQ 3 · Chinese 3 · Indian 3 · Italian 3 · Middle Eastern 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Japanese 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Pizza 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 65 · Bar 17 · Casual dining 11 · Quick service 11 · Bakery 9 · Dessert 9 · Café 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Buffet 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Other 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 7422 Old Centreville Rd | open |
| Active Nutrition Manassas , centro de bienestar familiar | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 8317 Centreville Rd | open |
| Alcove Hookah Lounge | Bar | 7258 Centreville Rd | open | |
| Amanecer Cuscatleco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | open | |
| Anthony's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Mediterranean | 7234 Centreville Rd | open |
| Antojitos Latinos | Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert | Juice / smoothies | 191 Cabbel Dr | open |
| Antojitos Ricos | Manassas Park VA | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Mexican · American | Lambert drive | open |
| Ariana Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 9104 Manassas Dr Ste I | open |
| Bbq Delight | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 8521 Manassas Dr | open |
| Blimpie | Quick service | 8500 Centreville Rd | open | |
| Cairo Cafe Cairo Cafe & Restaurant Cannington | Bar · Café | Coffee | 7223 Centreville Rd | open |
| Cevichazo Manassas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian | 7557 Centreville Rd | open |
| Clarke's Grill and Sports Emporium | Bar | 9103 Andrew Dr | open | |
| Columbus Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · American | 8349 Centreville Rd | open |
| Cook Out | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8502 Centreville Rd | open | |
| Costa Azul | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other) | 8265 Shoppers Sq | open |
| Delicias Peruanas | Gourmet Peruvian Pastries & Desserts | Bakery | Bakery | 7557 Centreville Rd Unit 101 | open |
| District BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 9123 Andrew Dr | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Dessert · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee | 7797 Centreville Rd | open |
| Eavesdrop Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | 7223 Centreville Rd | open | |
| El Espino Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Latin American (other) · American | 8446 Centreville Rd | open |
| El Garrobero | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 8389 Centreville Rd | open |
| El Molino Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 8456 Centreville Rd | open |
| El Oasis Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Casual dining · Bakery | Latin American (other) · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery · American | 9107 Andrew Dr | open |
| El Patron Restaurant & Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8059 Centreville Rd | open |
| El Quetzal Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 8450 Centreville Rd | open |
| El Rancho Taqueria & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 7234 Centreville Rd | open |
| El Taco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 7801 Centreville Rd | open |
| elestablobarandgrill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | open | |
| Eugene's Sausage & Fries Eugene's Sausage & Fries | Quick service | Hot dogs · American | 7223 Centreville Rd | open |
| Famous Kabob | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher | 9685 Liberia Ave #1740 | open |
| First Watch First Watch | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 9665 Liberia Avenue | open |
| Flaming Buffet | Buffet | Chinese · Asian | 8260 Shoppers Square | open |
| Good Time Cafe | Café | Coffee | 7606 Centreville Rd | open |
| Guapo's Manassas Rotisserie Guapo's Cantina | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Chicken / wings | 8498 Centreville Rd | open |
| Guapo's Taqueria & Charcoal Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8498 Centreville Rd | open |
| Gunston Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 9207 Enterprise Ct | open |
| Hardee's | Quick service | 8502 Centreville Rd | open | |
| Hermanos Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8699 Parkland St | open | |
| HookahGypsy cafe & lounge where the good friends meet | Bar | 8480 Park Center Ct | open | |
| Hunan Gourmet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | Historic District, 8273 Shoppers Square | open |
| Hunan Star Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 9125 Andrew Dr | open |
| Joe's Pizza and Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian | 8390 Centreville Rd | open |
| Jooce | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies | 9143 Manassas Dr | open |
| Klines Freeze | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 8200 Centreville Road | open |
| La Cueva Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 7911 Centreville Rd | open |
| La Fe Bakery Llc | Bakery | Bakery | 7209 Centreville Rd | open |
| La Isla Restaurant Sport & Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8699 Parkland St | open | |
| La Neveria Michoacana | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican | 7250 Centreville Rd | open |
| La perla restaurant & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 8699 Parkland St | open |
| La Tiendita Ventura | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 108 Kent Village Sq | open |
| Lahori Zaiqa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 7607 Centreville Rd | open |
| Larcomar Café Lounge | Café · Coffee shop · Bar | Coffee | 9141 Manassas Dr | open |
| Li'l Bowl Thai And Japanese Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 9121 Manassas Dr | open |
| Lil Bowl, Thai and Japanese Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Thai · Japanese | 9121 Manassas Dr | open |
| Love Hookah Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bar | Coffee | 7607 Centreville Rd | open |
| M&G customs llc | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8395 Euclid Ave | open | |
| Malibu Sports Grill and Bar | Bar | 8265 Shoppers Sq | open | |
| Mama Rosa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings | 7237 Centreville Rd | open |
| Mama Rosa Snowcone | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Italian · Juice / smoothies | 8252-8262 Centreville Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 8287 Shoppers Square | open |
| Mi Rancho Alegre | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 327 Manassas Dr | open |
| Mi Tierra Deli | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 7422 Old Centreville Rd | open |
| Moby Dick House of Kabob Moby Dick House of Kabob | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 7223 Centreville Rd | open |
| Moctec Enterprises Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 9209 Enterprise Ct | open |
| My Peruvian Food, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7557 Centreville Rd | open | |
| Nash & Smashed (Manassas Park) Nash & Smashed | Quick service | Burgers · Chicken / wings | 9153 Manassas Dr | open |
| Negus Brewing | Brewery / taproom | 8485 Euclid Ave | open | |
| PANADERIA | Bakery | Bakery | 8470 Park Center Ct | open |
| Pappasittoos Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 8490 Centreville Rd | open |
| Paradise Springs Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Parsons’ English Pub | Bar · Casual dining | open | ||
| Pho 24 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian | 8448 Centreville Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8263 Shoppers Square Manassas City | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 8362 Centreville Rd | open |
| Preston's Pub | Bar · Casual dining | American | 9103 Andrew Dr | open |
| Pupusas Express Pupusas Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 8342 Shoppers Square | open |
| Pupuseria Tia Lidia | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Latin American (other) · American | 108 Kent Vlg Sq | open |
| Pupuseria y Marisqueria Danny | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 7249 Centreville Rd | open |
| Rfx tv | Bar | Mexican | 8490 Centreville Rd | open |
| Rumalutions | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 7223 Centreville Rd | open |
| Sabor a Barrio | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 9123 Andrew Dr | open |
| Sabor a Barrio | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Mexican · Latin American (other) | 7557 Centreville Rd Unit 102 | open |
| Shahi kabob palace | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 8521 Manassas Dr | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 9123 Andrew Dr #6 | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 8017 Centreville Rd | open |
| Sweet Treats LLC | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 9143 Manassas Dr | open |
| Taiwan Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8041 Centreville Rd | open |
| Tandoori Village Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 7607 Centreville Rd | open |
| Tango Mango Juice Bar | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 7569 Centreville Rd | open |
| Taqueria Esperanza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 8407 Centreville Rd | open |
| Taqueria Y Carniceria El Poblano | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8535 Centreville Rd | open |
| Teppanyaki Grill & Supreme Buffet | Buffet · Casual dining · Bar | Asian | 8260 Shoppers Square | open |
| The All American Steakhouse The All American Steakhouse Edgewater | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 110 Park Central Plz | open |
| The Fogata | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 7911 Centerville Rd | open |
| The HOLE | Bar | 9305 Steve St | open | |
| Tita's Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Peruvian | 7547 Centreville Rd | open |
| Tortilleria El Pueblo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 8519 Manassas Dr | open |
| Tortino Mare Italian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet | Mexican · Italian | 120 Kent Village Sq | open |
| Weinegar's Sweets & Treats | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | Historic District, 9319 Arlington Ave | open |
| Yoder's Dutch Delights | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 9145 Manassas Dr | open |
| Yorkshire Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 7537 Centreville Rd | open |
| Habanero Bakery Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 327 Manassas Dr | closed | |
| Salt & Pepper | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 8521 Centreville Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 19 | 18 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 10 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 11 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 11 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 19 | 17 | 7 | 10 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 26 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 22 | 21 | 12 | 9 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 24 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 28 | 26 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 31 | 28 | 12 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 13 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 27 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 28 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 26 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 33 | 33 | 15 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 36 | 35 | 18 | 16 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 34 | 33 | 17 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 11 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 38 | 37 | 22 | 13 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 34 | 32 | 19 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 39 | 37 | 21 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 35 | 35 | 19 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 35 | 34 | 19 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 34 | 34 | 18 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 33 | 32 | 18 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 38 | 36 | 20 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 38 | 36 | 19 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |