BMIE Market 20124

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,375 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,825 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±434 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,857 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,052 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$221,060 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,427 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,378 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$884,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,265 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20124
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+109.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+475.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 20–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.40) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20124. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.40, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.9	85	40%	+33.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.9	68	35%	+23.8
Market Momentum Score	71.2	71	25%	+17.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,375	76	40%	+30.4
Median household income (ACS)	221,060	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	4,825	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15	59	35%	+20.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16	49	25%	+12.3
Population (ACS)	14,375	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	221,060	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15	73	50%	+36.5
10-year restaurant growth	15	59	30%	+17.6
20-year restaurant growth	109.1	85	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bake & Brew	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	12644 Chapel Rd	open
China Express	Catering	Chinese · Asian	5712 Union Mill Rd	open
Clifton Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	7144 Main St	open
Clifton Cupcake	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13656 Balmoral Greens Ave	open
Clifton Sports Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5801 Clifton Rd	open
Dave's Candy Kitchen	Dessert	Dessert	12523 Popes Head Rd	open
District Eatz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5720 Union Mill Rd	open
Fat Tuesdays Warrenton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13654 Union Village Cir	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5794 Union Mill Rd	open
Manhattan Bagel Manhattan Bagel	Quick service		5710 Union Mill Rd	open
Manhattan Bagel Manhattan Bagel	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	5710 Union Mill Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service		5760 Union Mill Rd	open
Motier French Pastry and Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	12644 Chapel Rd	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	711 S Ankeny Blvd	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	5702 Union Mill Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	5774 Union Mill Rd	open
Paradise Springs Winery Paradise Springs Winery, Virginia	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		13219 Yates Ford Rd	open
Peterson's Ice Cream Depot	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs · Dessert	7150 Main St	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5794 Union Mill Road	open
Rosemary's Thyme Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	5762 Union Mill Rd	open
Sakoonthai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	5760 Union Mill Rd	open
Snack Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6001 Union Mill Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5748 Union Mill Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5744 Union Mill Rd Space 15	open
The Main Street Pub	Bar · Casual dining		7140 Main St	open
Trattoria Villagio	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	7145 Main St	open
Trummer's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7134 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	16	5	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	19	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	17	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	19	12	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	18	11	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	11	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	20	14	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	21	15	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	19	14	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	21	16	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	21	14	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	23	15	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20124. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20111	3.0 mi	36	2023
20121	4.4 mi	101	2023
22039	4.7 mi	16	2023
22030	4.7 mi	179	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.