BMIE Market 22039

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,626 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,307 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,927 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±334 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,364 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,104 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,021,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,719 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22039
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 12–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22039. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.7	88	40%	+35.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.0	74	35%	+25.9
Market Momentum Score	69.2	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,626	81	40%	+32.4
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	5,927	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	35%	+17.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.2	80	25%	+19.9
Population (ACS)	19,626	81	20%	+16.2
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	30%	+15.3
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · Asian 3 · Dessert 3 · American 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Thai 2 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 4 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
29th Parallel Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5616 Ox Rd	open
Bakecreations by Lili LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8707 Cathedral Forest Dr	open
Burke Lake Park Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7315 Ox Rd	open
Chloez Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	5622 Ox Rd Unit f	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9011 Silverbrook Rd #101	open
George's Steak N Things	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	5624 Ox Rd	open
Gnr Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5624 Ox Rd # C1	open
Khao Hom Thai & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	5624 Ox Rd	open
Los Toltecos of Fairfax	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5614 Ox Rd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9027 Silverbrook Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9013 silverbrook rd	open
Peking Chef Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5622 Ox Rd	open
Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5624 Ox Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8902 Village Shops Dr	open
Roongrat Thai Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5624A Ox Rd	open
Steak N' Things	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	8908 Village Shops Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	9011 Silverbrook Road Suite 103	open
Szechuan D'Lite	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai	8906 Village Shops Dr Ste 2610	open
Tauch Brothers Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8908 Village Shops Dr	open
The Anderdome	Bar		Chase Glen Cir	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	16	6	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22039. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22015	3.2 mi	64	2023
22153	4.3 mi	21	2023
22192	4.5 mi	168	2023
20124	4.7 mi	23	2023
22152	4.8 mi	23	2023
22032	4.9 mi	25	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.