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BMIE Market 22153

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)32,664
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households10,971
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±467 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count31,285
2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units10,676
2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income$174,228
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,291 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age39.8
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent$2,772
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±102 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value$693,600
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,373 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area8.9 sq mi
Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants21
2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22153
Restaurants per 10,000 residents4.5
DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year+16.7%
DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year+5.0%
DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year+16.7%
DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file+31.3%
DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 202821 (range 19–24)
FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years aheadNeeds more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score79 / 100
MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score93 / 100
MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score77 / 100
MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score61 / 100
MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
Consumer Market Score92.89340%+37.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score76.77735%+26.9
Market Momentum Score60.96125%+15.2
Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
Population (ACS)32,6649040%+36.2
Median household income (ACS)174,2289840%+39.2
Households (ACS)10,9718720%+17.5
Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
10-year restaurant growth55035%+17.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)6.48725%+21.6
Population (ACS)32,6649020%+18.1
Median household income (ACS)174,2289820%+19.6
Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
5-year restaurant growth16.77550%+37.3
10-year restaurant growth55030%+14.9
20-year restaurant growth16.74420%+8.7
Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

Bakery 7 · Coffee 6 · Asian 5 · Pizza 5 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Quick service 6 · Café 4 · Dessert 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

NameTypeCuisineAddressStatus
29 Pad ThaiRestaurant (service type not stated)Noodles / ramen / pho8064 Rolling Rdopen
Abyssinia Speciality CoffeeCoffee shopCoffee7516 Fullerton Rdopen
APlus at SunocoCoffee shopCoffee7320 Gambrill Rdopen
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-RobbinsDessertIce cream / frozen desserts · Dessert7561 Huntsman Blvd Huntsman Sq Shopping Ctropen
Bb Haji BakeryBakeryBakery7401 Fullerton Rd Ste Copen
Burger KingQuick service6320 Augusta Dropen
Cervantes CoffeeCafé · Coffee shopCoffee7503 Cervantes Ctopen
Cervantes Coffee RoastersCoffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · CaféCoffee7644 Fullerton Rdopen
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican GrillRestaurant (service type not stated)Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex8066 Rolling Rd # 9open
Chopsticks ExpressRestaurant (service type not stated)Chinese · Asian7553 Huntsman Blvdopen
Domino's Domino's PizzaRestaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Delivery-focusedChicken / wings · Pizza8068 Rolling Roadopen
Dos Amigos fine Tex MexRestaurant (service type not stated)Mexican7375 Boston Blvdopen
Eat PizzaRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza · Italian7557 Huntsman Blvdopen
Eggs & SushiRestaurant (service type not stated)Japanese · Sushi · Breakfast7664 Fullerton Rdopen
Firework HibachiRestaurant (service type not stated)Japanese · Asian8082 Rolling Rdopen
H&k Management IncRestaurant (service type not stated)8086 Rolling Rdopen
Honey Pig Korean RestaurantRestaurant (service type not stated)Korean · Asianopen
Horton VineyardsWinery / distillery / taproom7534 Fullerton Ctopen
Hunan TasteRestaurant (service type not stated)Chinese · Asian8088 Rolling Rdopen
Impero WineWinery / distillery / taproom7963 Twist Lnopen
Kanjana Thai CuisineRestaurant (service type not stated)Thai8064 Rolling Rdopen
LA Taqueria DCRestaurant (service type not stated) · Quick servicePizza · Mexican · Burgers · Italian7420 Fullerton Rd #105Copen
Mabuhay BakeryBakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, teaBakery · Juice / smoothies7516 Fullerton Rdopen
McDonald's McDonald'sQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Burgers7909 Rolling Rdopen
Naaz Bakery IncBakeryBakery7401 Fullerton Rd Ste Copen
Panda CafeRestaurant (service type not stated)7420 Fullerton Rdopen
Pepperidge FarmBakeryBakery7664 Fullerton Rd # Nopen
Saratoga Pizzeria & GrillRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza · Italian8050 Rolling Rdopen
Soup ManRestaurant (service type not stated)7373 Boston Blvdopen
Starbucks StarbucksCoffee shop · CaféCoffee8068 Rolling Rdopen
Starbucks StarbucksCafé · Coffee shop · BakeryCoffee · BakeryHuntsman Square, 7475 Huntsman Blvdopen
Starline RestaurantRestaurant (service type not stated)American · Asian7608 Fullerton Rdopen
Subway SubwayQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Sandwiches8080 Rolling Rd Sp 16 Sp 16open
Subway SubwayQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Sandwiches7525 Huntsman Blvd Store B-4open
The Perfect PitaRestaurant (service type not stated)Mediterranean7653 Fullerton Rdopen
The Vanilla HouseBakery · DessertBakery · Dessert7121 Hanks Plopen
The Welle Made Co.BakeryBakery7516 Fullerton Rdopen
Vargas Restaurant Group.Restaurant (service type not stated)Pizza7420 Fullerton Rdopen
Pizza Boli'sRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza7557 Huntsman Blvdclosed
Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

YearAll food serviceRestaurantsFull-serviceLimited-serviceSnack & beverageBarsIndustry codes
19941616————SIC1987
19951515————SIC1987
19961616————SIC1987
19971313————SIC1987
19981414481—NAICS1997
19991313471—NAICS1997
20001212371—NAICS1997
200115153101—NAICS1997
20021414292—NAICS1997
200318184103—NAICS2002
200420204114—NAICS2002
200519195102—NAICS2002
200618185102—NAICS2002
200718184112—NAICS2002
200820194122—NAICS2007
20091616492—NAICS2007
20101414292—NAICS2007
20111717592—NAICS2007
201219195113—NAICS2012
201320205123—NAICS2012
201418184113—NAICS2012
201521184113—NAICS2012
20161917494—NAICS2012
20172319496—NAICS2017
20182318495—NAICS2017
20192419685—NAICS2017
20202318585—NAICS2017
20212319685—NAICS2017
20222320794—NAICS2022
20232421884—NAICS2022
U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22153. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTADistanceRestaurantsYear
221522.0 mi232023
221503.3 mi1222023
220153.7 mi642023
220394.3 mi162023
221514.4 mi412023
221254.6 mi112023
223154.8 mi572023
Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.