BMIE Market 22125

Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	681 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±151 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	388 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	711 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	400 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$161,364 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,541 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,008 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±679 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$494,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±32,972 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22125
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	84.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-8.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.90) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22125. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.90, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.6	56	40%	+22.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.3	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	83.2	83	25%	+20.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	681	26	40%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	161,364	97	40%	+38.9
Households (ACS)	388	32	20%	+6.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	161.5	2	25%	+0.6
Population (ACS)	681	26	20%	+5.2
Median household income (ACS)	161,364	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	37.5	87	50%	+43.4
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	37.5	57	20%	+11.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · Dessert 4 · Breakfast 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Thai 2 · Asian 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ballywhack Shack	Food truck		304 Mill St Ste 104	open
Ballywhack Shack Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	126 Commerce St	open
Bann Thai Old Town	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	416 Mill St	open
Bar J Chili Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	125 Mill St	open
Blue Arbor Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	201 Union St	open
Bottle Stop Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		311 Mill St	open
Cock & Bowl Belgian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	302 Poplar Alley	open
Coffee House of Occoquan	Coffee shop	Coffee	202 Commerce St	open
Dee2018 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		416 Mill St	open
Ek Wine Ventures, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		311 Mill St	open
Garden Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		404 Mill St	open
Grind N Crepe	Café	Breakfast · French · Coffee	301 Commerce St	open
Leaf & Petal	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	204 Washington St	open
Madigan's Waterfront	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	201 Mill St	open
Mill St. Draft Garden	Bar		200 Mill St	open
Mill Street Sweets	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	305 Mill St A2	open
Mom's Apple Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	126A Commerce St	open
NazBro Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	309 Mill St	open
Pink Bicycle Tea Room	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	303 Commerce St	open
Potomac Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	304 Mill St	open
Riverside Coffee Shop	Coffee shop	Coffee	201 Union St	open
Stone House Restaurant Group L.l.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		404 Mill St	open
Thai Ghang Waan Occoquan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	416 Mill St	open
The Piazza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian · Breakfast	301 Mill St	open
The Secret Garden Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	404 Mill St	open
The Spot on Mill Street	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bar	Coffee · Breakfast	406 Mill St	open
Third Base Pizza & Frozen Custard	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	202 Commerce St	open
Virginia Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	300 Mill Street	open
Zorba's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Greek	201 Union St #102	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	10	7	1	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	—	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	4	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	—	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22125. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22192	3.0 mi	168	2023
22079	3.2 mi	41	2023
22191	4.1 mi	97	2023
22153	4.6 mi	21	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.