BMIE Market 22151

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,017 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,506 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±402 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,456 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,932 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$156,015 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,509 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±600 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$655,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,981 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	41 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22151
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+36.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+64.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+64.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+127.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	43 (range 39–48) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22151. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.3	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.5	73	35%	+25.4
Market Momentum Score	83.8	84	25%	+21.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,017	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	156,015	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	5,506	76	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	64	87	35%	+30.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.1	28	25%	+7.1
Population (ACS)	17,017	79	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	156,015	97	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	36.7	87	50%	+43.3
10-year restaurant growth	64	87	30%	+26.0
20-year restaurant growth	64	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

Burgers 6 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Italian 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 1 · Filipino 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Quick service 8 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Casual dining 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abby's Cake and Desserts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5310 Weymouth Dr	open
Agave Bar Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5554 Port Royal Rd	open
America's Best Wings(HQ) Flame Japanese Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Chicken / wings · American	5411 Backlick Rd	open
Anita's New Mexico Style Bar & Grill Anita's New Mexican Food Chantilly	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8005 Braddock Road	open
Aroma Cafe Aroma Cafe	Bakery · Café	Latin American (other) · Coffee · Bakery	6969 Hechinger Dr	open
Bread & Bowl Deli Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5250A Port Royal Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5701 Backlick Rd	open
Cafe Milano Cafe Milano - Montreal	Café · Coffee shop	Italian · Coffee	6961 Hechinger Dr	open
Casablanca Tandoori	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	6963 Hechinger Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	DQ Grill & Chill Restaurant 5230 C Port Royal Rd	open
DC Slices Food Truck Co.	Food truck · Quick service	Pizza	5420 Port Royal Rd	open
Dona Bessy's Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	6961 Hechinger Dr	open
El Rancho Latin Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Peruvian	6959 Hechinger Dr	open
Giardino Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	8944 Burke Lake Rd	open
Golden China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6981A Hechinger Dr	open
Hong Kong Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5250 Port Royal Rd F	open
Hunan West	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8938 Burke Lake Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	5250-G Port Royal Road	open
Kiani’s Limousine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5517 Rolling Rd	open
Kilroy's	Bar	American	5250a Port Royal Rd	open
Marib Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	6981 Hechinger Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8976 Burke Lake Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5506 Backlick Rd	open
Napoleon Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6901 Hechinger Dr Ste D	open
Park Place Gourmet	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6708 Industrial Rd # B	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8948 Burke Lake Rd	open
Pho Sai Gon Oi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	6981 Hechinger Dr	open
Reyes Bakery Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6969 Hechinger Dr	open
S N Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6963 Hechinger Dr	open
Sabor Latino Panaderia & Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	6981A Hechinger Dr # A	open
Scoops2u Ice Cream Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers · Dessert	5410 Port Royal Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8960 Burke Lake Rd Unit 5	open
The Swiss Bakery and Pastry Shop	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	5224 Port Royal Rd	open
Vim & Victor	Bar		6805 Industrial Rd	open
Vocelli Pizza - Springfield Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6973 Hechinger Dr	open
Yogi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	5204 Port Royal Rd	open
Yummy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino	5216 Ferndale St	open
Zinga Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8942 Burke Lake Rd	open
Royal Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	8001 Forbes Pl Ste 102	closed
Sang Rok Soo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	5204 Port Royal Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	22	18	7	10	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	22	20	8	10	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	25	22	8	12	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	28	24	9	14	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	27	24	10	13	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	27	25	6	18	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	25	23	6	16	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	28	26	10	15	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	25	23	9	13	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	28	25	9	15	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	27	24	10	13	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	27	24	9	14	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	27	25	9	15	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	28	25	10	14	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	26	25	9	14	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	26	25	8	15	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	25	9	15	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	29	28	10	17	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	32	31	14	16	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	32	30	13	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	32	30	14	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	34	16	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	33	32	15	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	32	15	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	33	14	16	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	42	41	19	19	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22151. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22003	1.8 mi	144	2023
22152	2.4 mi	23	2023
22150	2.4 mi	122	2023
22312	3.0 mi	45	2023
22015	4.1 mi	64	2023
22042	4.3 mi	84	2023
22153	4.4 mi	21	2023
22032	4.5 mi	25	2023
22315	4.6 mi	57	2023
22031	4.7 mi	108	2023
22041	4.7 mi	79	2023
22310	4.8 mi	38	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.