BMIE Market 22310
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 28,136 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,720 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±433 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 29,609 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 11,818 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $166,061 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,449 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,490 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $659,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,896 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 6.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22310 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +26.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +22.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 42 (range 39–45) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22310. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 91.4 | 91 | 40% | +36.6 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 63.8 | 64 | 35% | +22.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 41.4 | 41 | 25% | +10.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 28,136 | 88 | 40% | +35.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 166,061 | 98 | 40% | +39.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,720 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 35% | +12.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 13.5 | 58 | 25% | +14.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 28,136 | 88 | 20% | +17.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 166,061 | 98 | 20% | +19.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 30% | +10.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 26.7 | 50 | 20% | +10.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (55)
By cuisine
Pizza 10 · American 8 · Coffee 8 · Asian 6 · Chinese 5 · Italian 5 · Burgers 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Dessert 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Thai 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Quick service 10 · Café 6 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acapulco Restaurant, Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 6141 Franconia Rd | open |
| All Rice Thai | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 7001L Manchester Blvd | open |
| Asia Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6935 Telegraph Rd | open |
| Baja Fresh Baja Fresh Mexican Grill | Quick service | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 7003A Manchester Blvd | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 7001H Manchester Blvd Manchester Lakes | open |
| Boardwalk Fresh Burgers & Fries | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 7015 Manchester Blvd. Suite E | open |
| BoBaPoP Tea Bar | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 7013A Manchester Blvd | open |
| Capitol Snow Shaved Ice | Dessert | Dessert | 6201 Franconia Rd | open |
| Dave's Hot Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7015 Manchester Blvd | open |
| Dominos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6911 Telegraph Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 7001 Manchester Blvd | open |
| Firebirds Wood Fired Grill Firebirds Wood Fired Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Seafood · American | 7027A Manchester Blvd | open |
| Firenza Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 7001 Manchester Blvd | open |
| First Watch First Watch | Café | Breakfast · Coffee · American | 7027C Manchester Blvd | open |
| Franconia Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 6112 Franconia Rd | open |
| Genghis Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 7001 Manchester Blvd | open |
| Grounded Coffee Shop | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 6919 Telegraph Rd | open |
| Jerry's Subs and Pizza | Other | Sandwiches | 7001A Manchester Blvd | open |
| Jimmy John's | Other | Sandwiches | 7011D Manchester Blvd | open |
| Johnny's New York Style Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 7011G Manchester Blvd | open |
| Kitchencray - Alexandria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6909 Metro Park Dr Ste 150 | open | |
| Kumo Asian Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Chinese · Asian | 7025 Manchester Blvd | open |
| La Fiamma Italian Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · Pizza · American | 6124 Franconia Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6144 Rose Hill Dr | open |
| Lucky's Sports Theatre & Grill | Bar | 7027 Manchester Blvd., #B | open | |
| Magic Wok Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 6194 Franconia Rd | open |
| Mama Mia Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6112 ROSE HILL Dr | open |
| Manchester Bagel | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 7001 Manchester Blvd Ste K | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5600 Franconia Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 6020 Rose Hill Dr | open |
| McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1468 N Beauregard St | open | |
| McDonald's | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Coffee · Burgers | 5800 Kingstowne Village Parkway | open |
| Mediterranean Gourmet Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Mediterranean | 6122 Franconia Rd | open |
| Mi Rico Peru | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 6113 Franconia Rd | open |
| Namaste Nepali and Indian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 6138 Rose Hill Dr | open |
| Negus Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 5509 Vine St | open | |
| Oriental Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6138 Rose Hill Dr | open |
| Osteria Marzano | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 6361 Walker Ln #140 | open |
| Paisano's Pizza Paisano's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 6937A Telegraph Rd | open |
| Philly Connection | Quick service | 7011C Manchester Blvd | open | |
| Pho Kim | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Asian | 6050 Rose Hill Dr | open |
| Pizza Fratelli Ltd | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6937 Telegraph Rd Ste A | open | |
| Portales Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | Latin American (other) | 6148 Franconia Rd | open |
| Rice & Noodles Thai Gourmet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai | 6111 Franconia Rd | open |
| Roy Rogers Roy Rogers | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 7013-F Manchester Blvd | open |
| Sampan Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Coffee | 6116 Franconia Rd | open |
| Shawarma Guys | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 7011 Manchester Blvd | open |
| Sophia's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 6354 Walker Ln | open |
| Springfield Cafe | Café | Coffee | 6355 Walker Ln | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 6110 Rose Hill Dr Store #24 | open |
| TACOS " Morenas" | Food truck | Mexican · Latin American (other) | ESQUINA PASTOR RAMOS Y FRANCISCO CUEVAS COL EMPLEADOS FEDERALES | open |
| The Bungalow Sports Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 7003C Manchester Blvd | open |
| Vocelli Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6126 Rose Hill Dr | open |
| Walker's Grille | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 6909 Metro Park Dr | open |
| Jtgraphics & Printing, Inc. | Bar | 5409 Vine St # A | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 31 | 31 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 28 | 28 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 30 | 30 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 31 | 31 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 33 | 33 | 12 | 19 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 29 | 29 | 10 | 17 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 29 | 29 | 10 | 17 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 27 | 27 | 11 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 34 | 32 | 15 | 17 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 30 | 13 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 32 | 30 | 14 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 31 | 29 | 15 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 34 | 33 | 15 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 34 | 31 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 33 | 31 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 34 | 33 | 14 | 18 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 34 | 33 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 38 | 36 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 41 | 38 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 39 | 36 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 39 | 36 | 15 | 19 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 38 | 35 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 41 | 38 | 19 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 40 | 38 | 17 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 42 | 40 | 17 | 18 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 44 | 41 | 18 | 17 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 44 | 41 | 17 | 17 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 43 | 40 | 17 | 19 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 41 | 38 | 16 | 17 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |