BMIE Market 22302
Alexandria city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 18,026 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 8,834 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 16,485 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 8,935 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $123,539 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 39.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,140 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±58 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $631,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57,372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 2.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22302 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 14.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +38.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 21 (range 16–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22302. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 85.1 | 85 | 40% | +34.0 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 60.7 | 61 | 35% | +21.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 63.9 | 64 | 25% | +16.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 18,026 | 80 | 40% | +31.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 123,539 | 91 | 40% | +36.6 |
| Households (ACS) | 8,834 | 83 | 20% | +16.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 35% | +12.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 13.9 | 57 | 25% | +14.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 18,026 | 80 | 20% | +15.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 123,539 | 91 | 20% | +18.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 38.9 | 87 | 50% | +43.6 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 30% | +10.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 25 | 49 | 20% | +9.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (49)
By cuisine
Coffee 8 · Bakery 6 · Pizza 6 · American 4 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Chinese 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Japanese 3 · Sushi 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Korean 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Quick service 6 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| &pizza &pizza | Quick service | Pizza · Italian | 3690 King St | open |
| Alexandria Pastry Shop | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 3690 King St H | open |
| Armand's Chicago Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4716 King St | open |
| Atlantis Pizzeria & Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3648 King St | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 1701 Centre Plz | open |
| BeeLiner Diner | Casual dining | American | 3648 King St | open |
| Bento Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 3526 King St | open |
| Bonchon Chicken Bonchon Chicken Philippines | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Chicken / wings · Asian | 3690 King St. Suite N | open |
| Cafe Pizzaiolo | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Pizza · Italian · Coffee | 1623 Fern St #2620 | open |
| Cafe Shiraz Bar And Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 3672 King St | open |
| California Tortilla | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3672 King St | open |
| Cava | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 3644 King St | open |
| China Delight | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 4686 King St | open |
| Choong Man Chicken - Alexandria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Chicken / wings | 4686 King St | open |
| Chord Bread and Bottle | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 3690 J King St | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 4698 King St. | open |
| Duck Donuts Duck Donuts | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 3610 F King St | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee · Bakery | 4700 S King St Suite B | open |
| El Saltado | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 3616 King St | open |
| Fairlington Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1715 Centre Plaza | open |
| Fares Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1700 Fern St | open | |
| Five Guys | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 4626 King St | open |
| Great Harvest Bread Co. | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Bakery · American | 1711 Centre Plz | open |
| Ho's Chinese Carryout | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 1707 Centre Plaza | open |
| Hong Kong Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 3616 King St | open |
| Kyoto Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 3676 King St | open |
| La Terraza | Casual dining · Bar | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4716 King St | open |
| May Island | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Chinese | 1669 N Quaker Ln | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3646 King St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 4803 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Meals On Wheels | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 2500 N Van Dorn St | open | |
| Naccas | Bar | 4401 Ford Ave | open | |
| New York Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4370 King St | open |
| Potbelly Potbelly Sandwich Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 4690 King St | open |
| Ramparts Tavern & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 1700 Fern St | open | |
| Rocket Fizz Alexandria Rocket Fizz | Dessert | 1721 Centre Plaza | open | |
| Silver Diner Silver Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4630 King St Unit A3 | open |
| Simply Fishing | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 1700 Fern St | open |
| St. Elmo’s Fairlington St. Elmo's Coffee Pub | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1536 Kenwood Ave, Alexandria, VA 22302-2318, United States | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 3690 Q King Street, Bradlee Shopping Center | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 4550 King St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Café · Coffee shop · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 3690 King St | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 3674 King St | open |
| Sushi Jin Next Door Sushi Jin | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 3470 Berkeley St #303 | open |
| TGI Fridays | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 4650 King St | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 3610 G King Street | open |
| Umi Hot Pot Sushi & Seafood Buffet- Alexandria VA Umi premier Sushi & Seafood Buffet - Deptford | Buffet | 4650 King St | open | |
| Valencia Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5144 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| Zoës Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 3644 King St | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 20 | 20 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 21 | 20 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 23 | 22 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 22 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 25 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 27 | 24 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 5 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 24 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 5 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 24 | 23 | 8 | 9 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 23 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 25 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 26 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 30 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 26 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 23 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 22 | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 24 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 20 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 24 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 23 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 25 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 26 | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 28 | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |