BMIE Market 20032

District of Columbia, District of Columbia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	40,920 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,456 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	17,651 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,258 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	35,653 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	15,681 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$49,139 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,896 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,317 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±58 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$407,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,794 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20032
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-31.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.46) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20032. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.46, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. District of Columbia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 30, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.4	62	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.3	49	35%	+17.3
Market Momentum Score	18.7	19	25%	+4.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	40,920	94	40%	+37.7
Median household income (ACS)	49,139	14	40%	+5.5
Households (ACS)	17,651	96	20%	+19.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-31.6	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.2	97	25%	+24.3
Population (ACS)	40,920	94	20%	+18.9
Median household income (ACS)	49,139	14	20%	+2.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	50%	+6.9
10-year restaurant growth	-31.6	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	18.2	44	20%	+8.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Mexican 3 · Seafood 3 · Asian 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 10 · Bar 8 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 3 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A's and Bee's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4600 6th St SE	open
Ace's Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2737 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE #2	open
All "Way's" Cookin	Restaurant (service type not stated)		234 Oakwood St SE	open
Azitouna Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2920 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Bakery Direct	Bakery	Bakery	3921 S Capitol St SW	open
Baskin-Robbins™ Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	1541 Alabama Avenue Southeast	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	191 Chappie James Blvd	open
California Tortilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4514 Chappie James Blvd	open
Capital City Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3023 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1571 Alabama Ave SE	open
Da Love Of Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2920 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Delightful Treetz Platters and Pastries	Bakery · Dessert · Catering	Bakery · Dessert	4660 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SW	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		1541 Alabama Avenue Southeast	open
Eddie Yum's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4405 S Capitol St SW	open
Father And Sons Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1523 Alabama Ave SE	open
Hong Kong Carryout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3125 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Horace and Dickies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2927 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1523 Alabama Ave SE	open
Joint Base Annacostia-Bolling	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Sandwiches	195 Chappie James Blvd SW	open
K-Taco	Quick service	Mexican	195 Chappie James Blvd	open
Martin's Food Town	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2765 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
MLK Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3113 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Moebachi DC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		2920 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
O, For Heaven's Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	901 Alabama Ave SE	open
Players Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Cajun, Creole, Southern	2737 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	601 Malcolm X Ave SE	open
Revolutions Foods Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1500 Mississippi Ave SE	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3109 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE Ste D	open
Rita’s of Congress Heights DC Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Sharks Fish & Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Chicken / wings	2927 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SE	open
Slip Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2842 Arnold Ave SW	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	195 Chappie James Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1551 Alabama Ave SE	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Chappie James Blvd SW Bldg. 4514	open
Taste Plum Good	Bar		112 Upsal St SE	open
The Whiskey Bar DC	Bar			open
Triceys DC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	1110 Oak Dr SE	open
Yum's Carry Out	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	3917 S Capitol St SW	open
China Southern Carry-out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	306 Southern Ave SE	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	5	—	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	11	1	9	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	11	1	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	11	—	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	13	—	11	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	1	11	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	14	—	12	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	16	—	15	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	16	—	15	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	16	—	15	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	15	—	14	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	17	1	15	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	23	19	2	16	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	21	17	2	14	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	18	3	13	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	21	16	1	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	16	—	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	15	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	15	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	18	3	15	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20032. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20373	1.6 mi	—
20745	2.2 mi	87	2023
20319	2.4 mi	1	1996
22301	2.4 mi	31	2023
22305	2.5 mi	31	2023
22202	2.6 mi	119	2023
20024	2.7 mi	81	2023
22314	2.8 mi	183	2023
20020	2.8 mi	39	2023
20388	3.1 mi	—
20390	3.5 mi	—
22302	3.6 mi	25	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.