BMIE Market 22306
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 30,602 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,582 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,655 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 32,326 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,312 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $97,132 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 36.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,710 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±56 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $594,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 6.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 72 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22306 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 13.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +30.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +80.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +111.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 74 (range 69–80) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22306. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 84.7 | 85 | 40% | +33.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66.0 | 66 | 35% | +23.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 75.6 | 76 | 25% | +18.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 30,602 | 89 | 40% | +35.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 97,132 | 79 | 40% | +31.6 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,655 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 30.9 | 72 | 35% | +25.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 23.5 | 29 | 25% | +7.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 30,602 | 89 | 20% | +17.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 97,132 | 79 | 20% | +15.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 20 | 77 | 50% | +38.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 30.9 | 72 | 30% | +21.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 80 | 77 | 20% | +15.4 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (114)
By cuisine
American 17 · Chicken / wings 12 · Coffee 12 · Mexican 11 · Latin American (other) 10 · Pizza 9 · Asian 8 · Bakery 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 6 · Chinese 6 · Dessert 6 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Seafood 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Japanese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Caribbean 1 · Filipino 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Indian 1 · Peruvian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 81 · Quick service 24 · Bakery 9 · Coffee shop 9 · Café 8 · Dessert 8 · Casual dining 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Bar 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 3 · Buffet 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America's Best Wings | Quick service | Chicken / wings | 7696 Richmond Hwy Ste C | open |
| Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 6310 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Bamboo Garden Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 6331 S Kings Hwy | open |
| Banda Burrito | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 7214 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Best Pollo Latino | Quick service | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 7849 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Big Panda | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 7849 Richmond Hwy # H | open |
| Blimpie | Quick service | 7732 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Bonchon Richmond Hwy | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Chicken / wings | 6852 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | American | 7732 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Café de Palo | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 7770 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Calabash of Alexandria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7305 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Chevys Fresh Mex | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 7732 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Chili's Grill & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6601 Richmond Highway | open | |
| China One | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 7700 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 6770 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert | 7702 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Cosmopolitan Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | German / Eastern European | 7700 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Crab Cab Seafood Restaurant - Alexandria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 6328 Richmond Hwy Ste A | open |
| Cruceñita | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Bakery | 3215 Napper Rd | open |
| Daks Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7629 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 7732c Richmond Hwy | open |
| Dunkin Donuts Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 7611 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 7645 Fordson Rd, Unit 102 | open |
| Eastern Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6331 S Kings Hwy | open |
| El Fresco Tex-Mex Grill El Fresco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 7324 Richmond Hwy | open |
| El Pollo Primero Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7324 Richmond Hwy | open |
| El Pollo Ranchero | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 6324 Richmond Hwy | open |
| El Rinconcito Típico | Bakery | Latin American (other) · Bakery | 7849 Richmond Hwy J2 | open |
| Fairview Motel | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6421 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Family Fortune | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 2913 Arlington Dr | open |
| Famous Dave's Barbecue Famous Dave's Bar-B-Que of America | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 6630 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Fast Food, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7868 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| First Watch First Watch | Café | Breakfast · Coffee · American | 6650 Richmond Highway | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 7622 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Five Sixty Six, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7694 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Fredif Ventura | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6324 RICHMOND Highway Floor 2 | open | |
| Fukoma | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Japanese · American | 7451 Mount Vernon Square Center | open |
| Golden Buffet and Grill | Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Mt Vernon Crossroad, 7820 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Green Olive Buffet & Grill | Buffet | Asian · Seafood | 7405 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Hangry Joe's Hot Chicken & Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7508C Richmond Hwy. | open |
| honeygrow | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7698 Richmond Highway, Space #42 | open | |
| IHOP IHOP | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7694 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| IHOP IHOP | Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 7694 Richmond Hwy | open |
| It's Just Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 6601 Richmond Highway | open |
| Italian Pie | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 7475 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Java Loco Coffee & Bubble Tea - Mt Vernon | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 7696 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Jerry's Subs and Pizza | Other | Sandwiches | 6308 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 7732 D Richmond Highway | open |
| Jimmy John's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 6305 Richmond Hwy Ste C | open |
| Kabob and Curry House - Halal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Halal / kosher | 2913 Arlington Dr | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7521 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Kpi Services | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7607 Fordson Rd | open | |
| Krispy Kreme Krispy Kreme Doughnuts | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee · Bakery | 6332 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Kung Fu Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 6328 Richmond Hwy Ste B | open |
| La Catracha | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6825 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| La Guera Jugos & Bionicos | Juice, smoothie, tea | Mexican · Latin American (other) · Juice / smoothies | 2905 Arlington Dr | open |
| La Jefa | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | Latin American (other) | 6410 Richmond Hwy | open |
| La Mexicana Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Mexican · Bakery | 2907 Arlington Dr | open |
| La Taza Bakery | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 7850 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Las Veguitas Restaurant | Bar | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 6333 S Kings Hwy | open |
| Ledo Pizza Hybla Valley Ledo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 7475 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Little Way Cafe | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 2907 Popkins Ln | open |
| Mamma's Kitchen Mamma's Pizza Canada | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Italian | 7601 Fordson Rd | open |
| Mazzio's Italian Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6305 Richmond Hwy | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 7910 Richmond Hwy | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 7614 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Milk & Honey Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 6305 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Moes Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 7698 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Noodles And Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7702 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 6804 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Paisano's Pizza Paisano's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 7711 Fordson Rd | open |
| Panda Express | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 6307 Richmond Hwy, Suite G | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 6670 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 7646 richmond highway | open |
| Peking Duck | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 7531 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Pho 777 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 7770 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 7611 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Pizza Hut Express Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Pizza · Coffee | 6600 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Pollo Campero Pollo Campero USA | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Latin American (other) | 7705 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 7832 Richmond Hwy Hybla Valley Shop Center | open |
| Pupusas Express Pupusas Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 7770 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Quickfire Japanese Hibachi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 7732A Richmond Hwy | open |
| Rally's | Quick service | 7511 Richmond Hwy # 7517 | open | |
| Rinconcito VIP | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 2911 Arlington Dr | open |
| Rosita's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 6510 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Ruby Tuesday | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 7692 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Ruby's Jamaican Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 2817 Schooley Dr | open |
| Sarku Japan Sarku Japan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 6309 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Satnam Food Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2913 Arlington Dr | open | |
| Sea Boil Crab House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 7305 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Shane's Rib Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 7698B Richmond Hwy | open |
| Sherwood Gourmet Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 7900 Andrus Rd | open |
| Shoney's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 6630 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Skrimp Shack Skrimp Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 7700E Richmond Hwy | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 7511 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 7696 Richmond Hwy # J (Mt Vernon Plaz, A) | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 7868 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 6678 Richmond Hwy | open |
| sweetFrog | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 6307 Richmond Hwy Ste F | open |
| sweetFrog Premium Fozen Yogurt | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 7770 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 7230 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Tacos El Costalilla | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 7862 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Taste of the Philippines | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Filipino · Asian | 2913 Arlington Dr Ste B | open |
| TGI Fridays TGI Fridays | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 6640 Richmond Hwy | open |
| The Meltdown | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7214 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Toppers Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Pizza | 6676 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Two Brothers Chicken & Subs | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7678-C Richmond Hwy | open |
| Uncle C's Chicken & Waffles | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 6308 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 6329 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 6636 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wings To Go | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7678-C Richmond Hwy (Route 1) | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 6328 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Yogurt City | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 7615 Fordson Rd | open |
| Zpizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6328C Richmond Hwy | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 34 | 34 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 31 | 31 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 33 | 33 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 37 | 37 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 40 | 37 | 13 | 22 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 42 | 37 | 14 | 20 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 41 | 38 | 14 | 21 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 49 | 46 | 17 | 25 | 4 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 45 | 42 | 19 | 21 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 43 | 40 | 16 | 20 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 50 | 48 | 19 | 24 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 51 | 49 | 17 | 26 | 5 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 49 | 47 | 17 | 25 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 50 | 48 | 19 | 26 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 48 | 45 | 16 | 25 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 46 | 44 | 16 | 24 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 46 | 44 | 15 | 23 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 49 | 47 | 14 | 26 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 55 | 52 | 15 | 32 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 57 | 55 | 17 | 31 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 61 | 59 | 19 | 33 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 65 | 63 | 20 | 37 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 64 | 62 | 19 | 36 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 65 | 62 | 22 | 34 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 63 | 60 | 23 | 32 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 64 | 61 | 23 | 32 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 66 | 63 | 24 | 33 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 69 | 64 | 23 | 35 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 75 | 71 | 26 | 37 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 77 | 72 | 24 | 40 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |