BMIE Market 22309
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 34,316 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,894 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 12,452 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±674 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 33,220 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,264 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $107,376 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,628 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 39.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,781 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $567,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,447 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 7.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22309 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -2.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +6.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +25.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 34 (range 30–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22309. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 88.6 | 89 | 40% | +35.5 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61.2 | 61 | 35% | +21.4 |
| Market Momentum Score | 45.6 | 46 | 25% | +11.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 34,316 | 91 | 40% | +36.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 107,376 | 85 | 40% | +34.1 |
| Households (ACS) | 12,452 | 90 | 20% | +18.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -2.9 | 22 | 35% | +7.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.9 | 73 | 25% | +18.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 34,316 | 91 | 20% | +18.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 107,376 | 85 | 20% | +17.1 |
Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 6.3 | 63 | 50% | +31.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -2.9 | 22 | 30% | +6.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 6.3 | 38 | 20% | +7.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (64)
By cuisine
Mexican 12 · Latin American (other) 10 · American 9 · Bakery 6 · Asian 5 · Pizza 5 · Chinese 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · African 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Indian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Thai 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Korean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 45 · Quick service 11 · Bakery 7 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Grill and Kabob | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 8738 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Amigos Deli & Supermarket | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Latin American (other) | 8723 Cooper Rd D | open |
| Cambita Linda | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3946 Woodhue Pl | open | |
| Chalkboard Wings & BBQ | Casual dining · Bar | BBQ · American | 8723 Cooper Rd | open |
| Chef Huang's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 8638 Richmond Hwy | open |
| China Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 8740 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Delicias 504 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 8541 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 8641 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 8702 Richmond Hwy | open |
| El Paso Mexican Restaurant-Cooper Road | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 8746 Cooper Rd | open |
| Enjoy Entertainment Banquet Hall | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8113 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Family Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 8733 Cooper Rd | open |
| Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · American | 8628A Richmond Highway | open |
| George Washington's Distillery and Gristmill | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5513 Mount Vernon Memorial Hwy | open | |
| Himalayan Soul Foods | Food truck | 8733 Cooper Rd | open | |
| Hunan East | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8792 Sacramento Dr | open |
| Inca Pollo Royal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8723 Cooper Rd Unit B | open | |
| Izalco Bar & Restaurant | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8403 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Johnny Mac's NC Style BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 8526 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Kimchi House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Asian · American | 8537 Richmond Hwy | open |
| La Colmena La Michoacana San Pedro | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies | 8746 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Las Carnitas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 8250 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Las Veguitas 2 Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 8428 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Little Caesars Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8752 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8246 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Mana Pupuseria and Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 8166 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Mariscos Mazatlan | Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining | Seafood · Juice / smoothies · American | 8256 Richmond Hwy | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 8735 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Nyame Ye African and Caribbean Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African · Caribbean | 8640A Richmond Hwy | open |
| Occasionally Cake | Bakery | Bakery | 8859 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Ojo's Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 8501 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Orale Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 8762 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Oraydes Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 8859 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Panaderia Mi Pueblo | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Bakery · Mexican | 8401 Richmond Hwy F | open |
| Pema's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet | 8430 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Postres Victoria | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 8704 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Postres Victoria Coffeehouse | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 8131 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Progresive Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8685 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Quiznos | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 8634 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Rahama African Restaurant Rahama Restaurant & Catering Services | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | African · American | 8738 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Ricos Tacos Moya | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8685 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Roy Rogers Roy Rogers | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 8860 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Sahara Restaurant | Casual dining · Bar | 8428 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Shah's Halal Food Alexandria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 8256B Richmond Hwy | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 8646 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Su Pollo Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Mexican · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings | 8741 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Suave | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 8430 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 8768 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Sweet Designs by Emily | Bakery | Bakery | 5703 Woodlawn Gable Dr | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 8652 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Taco Grande | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 8733 Cooper Rd | open |
| Taco Jalisco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8645 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Taco Lucas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8142 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Tandoori Kabob & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 8792 Sacramento Dr | open |
| Taqueria Mr. Mosh( Taco Truck) | Food truck | Mexican | 8306 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Thai Herbs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai | 8501 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Thai Nakorn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 8733 Cooper Rd | open |
| Tops China | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 8727 Cooper Rd | open |
| Vinito's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8796 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Vocelli Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8857 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 8700 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wing Zone | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Indian · Chicken / wings · American | 8634 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wingstop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 8723 Cooper Rd Ste C | open |
| Woodlawn Press Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 8733-B Cooper Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 28 | 27 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 26 | 25 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 27 | 27 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 26 | 26 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 25 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 27 | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 27 | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 30 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 32 | 32 | 14 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 32 | 32 | 16 | 14 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 35 | 35 | 16 | 17 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 37 | 36 | 16 | 17 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 38 | 38 | 16 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 35 | 35 | 16 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 36 | 35 | 16 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 38 | 37 | 16 | 18 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 33 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 32 | 32 | 16 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 35 | 35 | 18 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 30 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 34 | 34 | 18 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 16 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 34 | 34 | 16 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 32 | 32 | 15 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 31 | 31 | 14 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 33 | 32 | 17 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 38 | 37 | 18 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 34 | 34 | 17 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 34 | 34 | 18 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2022 |