BMIE Market 22307

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,343 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±948 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,560 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±322 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,581 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,655 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$141,667 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,445 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,913 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$778,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59,511 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22307
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22307. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.1	81	40%	+32.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.3	72	35%	+25.3
Market Momentum Score	39.6	40	25%	+9.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,343	71	40%	+28.5
Median household income (ACS)	141,667	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	4,560	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	77	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	10,343	71	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	141,667	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bakery 4 · Café 3 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Casual dining 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1500 Belle View Blvd	open
Belle Haven Pizzeria - The Haven	Dessert · Casual dining · Bar · Bakery	Pizza · Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery · American	1401 Belle Haven Rd	open
Belleview Barber Shop, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1608 Belle View Blvd	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1624 Bellevue Blvd	open
Bun Papa Bread & Water	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Café	Burgers · Bakery · Coffee · American	1512 Belle View Blvd	open
Dishes of India	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	1510 Belle View Blvd	open
Drp Belle Haven Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1401 Belle Haven Rd	open
euro BISTRO & GRILL	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	6027-6067 U.S. 1	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	6210 Quander Road	open
Pizza Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6631 Wakefield Dr	open
Primo Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	1636 Belle View Blvd	open
Revel Wine & Craft Beer Bar	Bar		1600 Belle View Blvd	open
Roy Rogers Roy Rogers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1506 Belle View Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1624 Belle View Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1510 Belle View Blvd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1610 Belle View Blvd	open
Wesling Financial Planning Services-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6621 Wakefield Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22307. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22303	2.0 mi	21	2023
22314	2.5 mi	183	2023
22308	2.8 mi	5	2023
22306	3.0 mi	72	2023
22301	3.4 mi	31	2023
22310	3.5 mi	38	2023
22304	4.1 mi	68	2023
22302	4.2 mi	25	2023
20745	4.2 mi	87	2023
22309	4.3 mi	34	2023
20744	4.4 mi	32	2023
22305	4.6 mi	31	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.