BMIE Market 20616

Charles County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,057 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±975 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,695 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,857 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,203 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,177 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,060 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$387,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,875 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20616
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	10 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20616. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.1	77	40%	+30.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.9	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	9.5	10	25%	+2.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,057	68	40%	+27.0
Median household income (ACS)	128,177	93	40%	+37.0
Households (ACS)	2,695	66	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	77	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	8,057	68	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	128,177	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 10 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	-30	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 3 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · African 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Quick service 5 · Bar 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bar 210	Bar		6971 Indian Head Hwy	open
Bryan's Wine and Spirits	Bar		3105 Marshall Hall Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3165 Marshall Hall Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	7091 Indian Head Hwy	open
Gios Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3091 Marshall Hall Rd	open
Goodies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	8030 Matthews Rd	open
High Noon Southern Fine Cuisine &Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3063 Marshall Hall Rd	open
Honey Bun Cake Factory	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6964 Indian Head Hwy	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	302 Canberra Way	open
Lee's Caribbean & Soul Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service			open
Lunch Box Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	6928 Indian Head Hwy	open
M&D Chicken and Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African · American	3091 Marshall Hall Rd	open
Mama Stellas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	7075 Indian Head Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3050 Marshall Hall Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3055 Marshall Hall Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20616. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20607	3.9 mi	11	2023
22309	4.1 mi	34	2023
22060	4.1 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.