BMIE Market 22060
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 10,641 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 2,893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 8,878 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 2,928 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $105,605 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,035 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 24.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $3,196 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $764,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±98,055 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 13.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22060 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 5.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +71.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +140.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 13 (range 11–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22060. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 75.7 | 76 | 40% | +30.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 81.4 | 81 | 35% | +28.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 91.8 | 92 | 25% | +23.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 10,641 | 72 | 40% | +28.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 105,605 | 84 | 40% | +33.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 2,893 | 66 | 20% | +13.3 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 140 | 95 | 35% | +33.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.3 | 67 | 25% | +16.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 10,641 | 72 | 20% | +14.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 105,605 | 84 | 20% | +16.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 71.4 | 94 | 50% | +46.8 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 140 | 95 | 30% | +28.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 100 | 82 | 20% | +16.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (30)
By cuisine
Coffee 9 · Sandwiches 6 · Juice / smoothies 4 · American 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 12 · Coffee shop 8 · Dessert 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Buffet 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burger King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8651 John J Kingman Rd Bldg 2321 | open | |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | Patrick & 12th St | open |
| Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · American | 8651 John J Kingman Rd | open |
| Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks | Quick service | Sandwiches | 8651 John J Kingman Rd | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 5976 12th Street | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 5985 13th St | open |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 6095 Gorgas Rd | open |
| Fort Belvoir Post Exchange | Quick service · Bar | 9300 Dewitt Loop | open | |
| FroYo 2 Go | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies | 6020 12th St | open |
| Jimmy John's Jimmy John's | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 9142 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Niblick’s Grill | Casual dining · Buffet · Bar | American | 8450 Beulah St | open |
| Panda Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8651 John J Kingman Rd | open | |
| Panera Bread | Quick service · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 6095 Gorgas Rd Bldg 2304 | open |
| Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 8651 John J Kingman Rd Bldg 2321 | open |
| QDOBA Mexican Eats | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Mexican | 8651 John J Kingman Rd | open |
| Rice King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6000 12th St | open |
| Smoothie King | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies | 9142 Richmond Highway | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 6050 Gorgas Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 9325 Gunston Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 9325 Gunston Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 5976 12th St | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 9300 DeWitt Loop | open |
| Subway | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 8651 John J Kingman Blvd, Bldg #2321 | open |
| Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 9300 Dewitt Loop | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 6010 12th St Bld 160 | open |
| sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 6020 12th St, Ste 250 | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 8651 John J Kingman Rd | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6006 12th St | open | |
| Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza | Quick service | 9142 Richmond Highway, Unit G | open | |
| Taco Bell | Quick service | 8651 John J Kingman Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 8 | 5 | — | 1 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 6 | 4 | — | 1 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 5 | 3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 7 | 5 | — | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 7 | 5 | — | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 11 | 6 | — | 2 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 12 | 7 | — | 3 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 13 | 7 | — | 3 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 11 | 7 | — | — | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 11 | 7 | — | 3 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 12 | 8 | — | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 12 | 7 | — | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 14 | 9 | — | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 15 | 9 | — | 4 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |