BMIE Market 22015
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 44,647 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,555 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 14,615 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±426 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 43,102 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 15,133 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $172,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,927 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 40.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,629 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $696,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,391 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 8.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 64 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22015 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 10.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +16.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +4.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +64.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 63 (range 55–72) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 96 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 96.0 | 96 | 40% | +38.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 69.9 | 70 | 35% | +24.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 64.2 | 64 | 25% | +16.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 96 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 44,647 | 96 | 40% | +38.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 172,563 | 98 | 40% | +39.2 |
| Households (ACS) | 14,615 | 93 | 20% | +18.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 4.9 | 50 | 35% | +17.4 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 14.3 | 55 | 25% | +13.8 |
| Population (ACS) | 44,647 | 96 | 20% | +19.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 172,563 | 98 | 20% | +19.6 |
Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 16.4 | 74 | 50% | +37.1 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 4.9 | 50 | 30% | +14.9 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 45.5 | 61 | 20% | +12.2 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (97)
By cuisine
Asian 15 · American 14 · Coffee 10 · Pizza 9 · Sandwiches 7 · Bakery 6 · Chicken / wings 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Japanese 6 · Mexican 6 · Italian 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Burgers 4 · Chinese 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Sushi 4 · Dessert 3 · Indian 3 · Korean 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Thai 2 · European 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Peruvian 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 61 · Quick service 16 · Bakery 7 · Café 7 · Dessert 7 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Other 4 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anita's New Mexico Style Mexican Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 9278 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Battalion Landing Pipestem | Bar | 10615 Battalion Landing Ct | open | |
| Beijing Tokyo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Japanese · Chinese | 9544 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Bento Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 5727 BURKE CTR | open |
| Big Bite Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9413 Old Burke Lake Rd | open |
| Bonchon Burke | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 9522 Burke Rd | open |
| Bonchon Burke | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 9540 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Boston Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9278 Old Keene Mill Rd Unit A | open |
| Burke Fortune House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 6030 Burke Commons Rd Ste e | open |
| Cafe Rio Cafe Rio Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 6003 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Capital Bagel Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 6030 Burke Commons Rd Ste H | open |
| CAVA CAVA | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Mediterranean · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5765A Burke Centre Parkway | open |
| Cedar Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 6409 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Chesapeake Bagel Bakery | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 5719 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Chi Mc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Asian | 9522 Burke Rd | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 5815 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Chicken Palace | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings | 6030 Burke Commons Rd Ste K | open |
| China Town Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Thai | 9530 Burke Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Quick service | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 5747 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Coal Fire Pizza Coal Fire Pizza | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9276 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 5705 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Curry House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Vegetarian · Asian | 5765C Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Dessert · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 6050-E Burke Commons Rd 6050 E Burke Commons Rd | open |
| Dca Treasure Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5705 Burke Centre Pkwy | open | |
| Del Valle Cafe Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9546 Old Keene Mill Rd | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 9532 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Duk Wo Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Sushi · Japanese | 9570 Burke Rd #J | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 6050 Burke Commons Rd | open |
| El Pueblo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Spanish / tapas | 9550 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Evergreen Burke | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · BBQ · Asian | 9528 Burke Rd | open |
| Fired Up Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9413 Old Burke Lake Rd | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5761 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Friendly's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 5761 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Glory Days Grill Glory Days Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 9526 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Great Harvest Bread Company | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 6030 Burke Commons Rd Ste G | open |
| H J International Trading Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5747 Burke Centre Pkwy | open | |
| H Pho | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 9546 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Hangry Joe's Hot Chicken & Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 9540 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Hans Group Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9570 Burke Rd # N | open | |
| Hong Kong Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 6030 Burke Commons Rd | open |
| Hopsfrog Grille | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 6030 Burke Commons Rd L-1 | open |
| Hunan East | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 9546 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| IHOP IHOP | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 6419 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Jerry's Subs & Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 6050 Burke Commons Rd Ste D | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 6025 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 9402 Old Burke Lake Rd | open |
| Kilambe Coffee & Tea | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5206 Lyngate Ct | open | |
| Kung Fu Tea Kung Fu Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea · Asian | 9530B Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| L'ami Bakery & Cafe | Café | Coffee | 9550 Burke Rd | open |
| Lassan - Indian Restaurant & Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 6413a Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Lebanese Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 9522 Burke Rd | open |
| Lil Cow Cafe Bistro | Café | Coffee · American | 6409 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Manginos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 9570 Burke Rd | open |
| Margaritas Latin Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 9526 Burke Rd | open |
| Mat Jib | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Japanese | 9550 Burke Rd | open |
| McCafe | Quick service · Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 9528 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 9528 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 5651 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Moneywreck BBQ Company | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 9612 Scorpio Ct | open |
| Moo Thru Burke | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 6025 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Neals on Wheelz Northern Virginia | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 9411 Wooded Glen Ave | open |
| Paisano's Pizza Paisano's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5765 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Panisa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 5747 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 9570b burke rd | open |
| Pardon My Cheesesteak | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 6419 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Pho Duong Vietnamese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian | 9538 Burke Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6405 Shiplett Boulevard Fairfax | open |
| Queens Cuisine | Food truck | American | open | |
| Raaga Tandoor | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 6030 Burke Commons Rd | open |
| Rafagino Ristorante | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · European | 9570 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Roaming Rooster | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 6417 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Sakura Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 6411 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| South Block South Block | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5765 Burke Centre Pkwy Ste D | open |
| Spartans Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9542 Burke Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 5727 Burke Center Parkway | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 6003 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 9596 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 5765 Burke Centre Pkwy Ste D | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 6415 Shiplett Blvd Ste 29efs | open |
| Sunshine Food Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6411 Shiplett Blvd | open | |
| Sweet Frog sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 9564 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| sweetFrog | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 6025 Burke Centre Pkwy, Unit E | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 5661 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Tau Tau Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6413 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp | Quick service | 6419 Shiplett Blvd | open | |
| The Roaming Coyote | Food truck | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 5799 Burke Centre Pkwy Ste H | open |
| The Swiss Bakery & Pastry Shop | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea | Bakery · Juice / smoothies | 9536 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Tous Les Jours | Coffee shop | Coffee | 9278A Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Treat'n Me | Bakery | Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5765 Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 6415 Shiplett Blvd | open |
| Tutti Frutti Frozen Yogurt | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 9538 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Villa Bella | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 6050 Burke Commons Rd | open |
| Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5765-H Burke Centre Pkwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 6056 Burke Commons Road | open |
| Yinzer Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 9768 Lakepointe Dr | open | |
| Glory Days Of Burke Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9562C Old Keene Mill Rd | closed | |
| Smith & Clarkson's Cafe | Other | Sandwiches | 6030 Burke Commons Rd Ste H | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 39 | 39 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 41 | 41 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 41 | 41 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 52 | 52 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 51 | 50 | 20 | 25 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 45 | 44 | 19 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 51 | 49 | 18 | 26 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 50 | 48 | 21 | 22 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 46 | 45 | 20 | 22 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 45 | 44 | 20 | 21 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 53 | 51 | 20 | 27 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 48 | 46 | 19 | 25 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 50 | 48 | 20 | 24 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 52 | 49 | 21 | 24 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 55 | 51 | 21 | 26 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 55 | 51 | 19 | 28 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 49 | 47 | 17 | 26 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 49 | 47 | 17 | 25 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 53 | 51 | 19 | 27 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 64 | 61 | 24 | 31 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 59 | 57 | 22 | 28 | 7 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 54 | 52 | 19 | 26 | 7 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 56 | 53 | 21 | 26 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 56 | 53 | 19 | 29 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 59 | 55 | 19 | 31 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 59 | 54 | 17 | 31 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 58 | 56 | 19 | 30 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 59 | 55 | 20 | 29 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 69 | 65 | 25 | 31 | 9 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 72 | 64 | 23 | 32 | 9 | — | NAICS2022 |