BMIE Market 22032
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 29,240 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,672 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,796 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±478 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 29,377 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,009 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $178,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,339 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 42.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,553 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±349 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $799,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 7.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22032 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +19.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +47.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +127.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 24 (range 19–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 80 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22032. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 91.7 | 92 | 40% | +36.7 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 80.4 | 80 | 35% | +28.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 70.8 | 71 | 25% | +17.7 |
Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 29,240 | 88 | 40% | +35.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 178,394 | 98 | 40% | +39.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,796 | 85 | 20% | +17.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 80 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 25 | 67 | 35% | +23.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 8.6 | 78 | 25% | +19.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 29,240 | 88 | 20% | +17.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 178,394 | 98 | 20% | +19.6 |
Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 19.1 | 77 | 50% | +38.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 25 | 67 | 30% | +20.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 47.1 | 62 | 20% | +12.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (45)
By cuisine
Coffee 9 · Dessert 5 · American 4 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Quick service 8 · Dessert 7 · Café 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Casual dining 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angies Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9569 Braddock Rd | open | |
| Another Broken Egg Cafe Another Broken Egg Cafe | Café | Breakfast · Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 10645 Braddock Rd Unit B2 | open |
| Bangkok Golden Thai Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 10621 Braddock Rd | open |
| Banh Mi Ong Beo - Fairfax | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Sandwiches · Asian | 10631 Braddock Rd | open |
| Baskin-Robbins | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 9547 Braddock Rd, Twinbrook Plaza | open |
| Brion's Restaurant Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10621 Braddock Rd | open | |
| Bunnyman Brewing Bunnyman Brewing Chantilly | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 5583 Guinea Rd | open | |
| caKedivas.net | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | Olley Lane | open |
| Chatime University Mall Chatime USA | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 10637 Braddock Rd | open |
| China Shanghai Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 9573 Braddock Rd | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 10649 Braddock Rd | open |
| Doña Mesa | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American | 10621 Braddock Rd Ste C | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 10633 Braddock Rd | open |
| Elina Tasty Art Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 5117 Thackery Ct | open |
| Fats Fairfax | Casual dining · Bar | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 10673 Braddock Rd | open |
| Gathering Grounds | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 10637 Braddock Rd | open |
| Haze Hookah Cafe | Bar | 9565 Braddock Rd | open | |
| Mac Press | Café | Coffee | 5205 Commonwealth Ct | open |
| McAlister's Deli McAlister's Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 10691 Braddock Rd | open |
| McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 10645 Braddock Rd | open |
| Noosh Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 9573 Braddock Rd | open |
| Oh George Tables and Taphouse | Casual dining · Bar | 10659 Braddock Rd | open | |
| Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 9579 Braddock Rd | open |
| Pho Saigon 75 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian | 9535 Braddock Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9581 Braddock Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 10301 New Guinea Rd | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 9581 Braddock Road | open |
| Raices Peruvian Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 4080 Orchard Dr | open |
| Samurai Japanese Steak & Sushi Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse | 10645 Braddock Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 9525 Braddock Rd (Safeway - Fairfax #1, 365) | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 10653 Braddock Rd | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 10301 New Guinea Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 9559 Braddock Rd | open |
| Taco Bamba Fairfax Taco Bamba | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 10629 Braddock Rd | open |
| TCBY | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 10625 Braddock Rd | open |
| The Inside Scoop | Dessert · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | open | |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 10655 Braddock Rd | open |
| Ts Cafe Ventures Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10655 Braddock Rd # A | open | |
| Unique Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 9557 Braddock Rd | open |
| Velocity Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10697 Braddock Rd | open | |
| Waraku Japanese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 9539 Braddock Rd | open |
| Woody's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 4005 Stone Wall Ave | open |
| Angies& Arther Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9569 Braddock Rd | closed | |
| Banditos Bar & Kitchen Fairfax | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 10621 Braddock Rd Ste C | closed |
| Peachwave Of Fairfax | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 10631 Braddock Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 11 | 11 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 14 | 14 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 17 | 16 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 9 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 8 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 7 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 23 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 28 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 23 | 20 | 8 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 23 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 25 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 24 | 21 | 10 | 9 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 28 | 25 | 9 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2022 |