BMIE Market 22152
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 28,814 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,460 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,443 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±294 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 28,550 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,636 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $165,906 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,097 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 39.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,571 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $648,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,715 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 6.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22152 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -8.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +4.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +27.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +35.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 23 (range 19–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22152. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 91.1 | 91 | 40% | +36.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 74.5 | 75 | 35% | +26.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 35.1 | 35 | 25% | +8.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 28,814 | 88 | 40% | +35.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 165,906 | 98 | 40% | +39.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,443 | 84 | 20% | +16.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 4.6 | 49 | 35% | +17.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 8.0 | 80 | 25% | +20.1 |
| Population (ACS) | 28,814 | 88 | 20% | +17.6 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 165,906 | 98 | 20% | +19.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -8 | 20 | 50% | +10.1 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 4.6 | 49 | 30% | +14.8 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 27.8 | 51 | 20% | +10.1 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (43)
By cuisine
Bakery 6 · American 5 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 3 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · African 1 · Breakfast 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bakery 6 · Quick service 6 · Café 4 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghan Kabob Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 6357 Rolling Rd | open |
| Asian Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Asian · American | 6228 Rolling Rd A | open |
| Austin Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8430 Old Keene Mill Rd | open | |
| BGR Burgers Grilled Right | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 8420 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Chesapeake Bagel Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 8420 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 6230 Rolling Rd Ste X | open |
| Chopsticks Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8434 Old Keene Mill Rd | open | |
| Coffee Pialeh Hookah Lounge | Bar | 6345 Rolling Rd | open | |
| Crimson Coward Nashville Hot Chicken Crimson Coward | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 8402 Old Keene Mill Rd Unit 104 | open |
| District Taco District Taco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 8432 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Duck Donuts Duck Donuts | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 8404 A Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels | Bakery | Bakery · Breakfast | 8317 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Glamix by Hideout | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6355 Rolling Rd | open | |
| honeygrow | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8426 Old Keene Mill Rd | open | |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 8432 Old Keene Mill Road Suite 2 | open |
| Jummah Bakery & Cafe | Bakery | Bakery | 6351 Rolling Rd | open |
| Kanji Sushi AYCE - Springfield | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 8430 A Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Ledo Pizza Ledo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 8324 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| McAlister's Deli McAlister's Deli | Other · Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 8402B Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 6219 Rolling Rd | open |
| Mena Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African | 6222 Rolling Rd | open |
| mezeh Mezeh | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Middle Eastern | 8406 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Milano's Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Greek | 6230 Rolling Rd | open |
| Mjs Restaurants Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6208 Rolling Rd | open | |
| Monty's Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 8426 Rolling Rd. | open |
| Om Associates Inc. Dba Subway Sandwich Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6230 Rolling Rd Ste S | open | |
| Out Of The Bubble Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 6230 Rolling Rd Ste A | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 6230 W Rolling Road | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 6228h Rolling Rd Ste H | open |
| PistachYo Frozen Yogurt | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Dessert | 8324B Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 6230-t Rolling Rd | open |
| Pupatella | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8434 Old Keene Mill Rd | open | |
| Robeks Robeks Fresh Juices & Smoothies | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 8324B Old Keene Mill Rd Suite B | open |
| Rolling Cooking | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6351 Rolling Rd | open |
| South Block South Block | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 8402F Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 8408-A Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 6230 S Rolling Rd Ste 14 | open |
| Sweet Frog Old Keene Mill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 8418 Old Keene Mill Rd | open | |
| Tiyaki Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 8434 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Victor's Pizza Den 1 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 8406 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Village Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · American | 6228 Rolling Rd Unit G | open |
| Willie T’s Seafood Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 8430 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
| Yindee Thai | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Seafood · Asian | 8412 Old Keene Mill Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 17 | 17 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 14 | 14 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 22 | 22 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 19 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 21 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 19 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 18 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 19 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 22 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 22 | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 12 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 26 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 27 | 26 | 11 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 27 | 24 | 10 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 27 | 22 | 8 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 26 | 22 | 11 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 29 | 24 | 10 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 29 | 23 | 8 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2022 |