BMIE Market 20112

Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,727 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,470 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±593 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,833 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,448 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$195,467 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,386 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,927 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±714 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$648,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,898 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20112
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+325.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20112. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.1	92	40%	+36.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.6	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	27.4	27	25%	+6.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,500	89	40%	+35.7
Median household income (ACS)	195,467	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	9,470	84	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15	16	35%	+5.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.6	90	25%	+22.4
Population (ACS)	30,500	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	195,467	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15	15	50%	+7.7
10-year restaurant growth	-15	16	30%	+4.8
20-year restaurant growth	70	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 7 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
All American Steakhouse The All American Steakhouse Edgewater	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Steakhouse · American	5594 Ashland Community Sq	open
Asian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	6348 Hoadly Rd	open
Audrey's Fish & Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	13460 Dumfries Rd	open
Cakeland Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10930 Inspiration Point Pl	open
Champs Chicken Champs Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Chicken / wings · American	13711 Dumfries Rd	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	12805 Galveston Ct	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12647 Galveston Ct Unit 109	open
Confections	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	12801 Gavelston CT	open
Dino & Harrys Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · Italian		open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	13448 Dumfries Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	13414 Dumfries Road	open
Follmer's Fishing Camp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Jay's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		8076 Counselor Rd	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15701 Carrs Brooke Way	open
Louisiana Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6316 Hoadly Rd	open
Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10470 Dumfries Road	open
Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12801 Galveston Ct	open
Moe's Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	12841 Galveston Ct	open
Nash & Smashed Nash & Smashed	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	12853 Galveston Ct	open
Nathan's Dairy Bar	Dessert · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	9898 Chevalle Dr	open
Old Settle Pub	Bar			open
Pa Nuang Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	12651 Galveston Ct	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12901 Galveston Ct	open
Petra Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	12635 Galveston Ct	open
Shah's Halal Food Manassas Shah’s Halal Food UK	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12805 Galveston Ct	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	13472 Dumfries Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	12639 Galveston Court Space #7	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		12901 Galveston Ct	open
Tequeño World	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	6348 Hoadly Rd	open
Tony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13629 Dumfries Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	12697 Galveston Court	open
Woodbine Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	13456 Dumfries Rd	open
zpizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12817 Galveston Ct	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	1	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	9	2	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	7	1	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	2	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	2	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	3	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	3	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	15	3	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	19	6	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	20	5	12	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	22	20	4	13	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	5	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	22	9	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	21	21	8	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	20	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	21	9	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	19	7	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	18	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	20	7	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20112. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22193	4.7 mi	63	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.