BMIE Market 22193

Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	81,588 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,986 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	24,383 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±771 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	73,047 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	23,150 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$117,337 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$444,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,200 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	63 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22193
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+43.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+117.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	72 (range 63–81) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.0 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	95 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	82 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22193. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	95.5	95	40%	+38.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.7	86	35%	+30.0
Market Momentum Score	82.2	82	25%	+20.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	81,588	100	40%	+39.9
Median household income (ACS)	117,337	89	40%	+35.8
Households (ACS)	24,383	99	20%	+19.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	43.2	78	35%	+27.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.7	81	25%	+20.4
Population (ACS)	81,588	100	20%	+19.9
Median household income (ACS)	117,337	89	20%	+17.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	43.2	78	30%	+23.5
20-year restaurant growth	70.3	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (100)

By cuisine

Pizza 15 · American 14 · Asian 9 · Chicken / wings 8 · Coffee 7 · Middle Eastern 7 · Burgers 6 · Chinese 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Seafood 6 · Bakery 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Italian 5 · Mexican 5 · BBQ 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Indian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Vietnamese 3 · Breakfast 2 · Caribbean 2 · Dessert 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Peruvian 2 · Thai 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 74 · Quick service 22 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
703 Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	5856 Mapledale Plz	open
Al's Buffalo Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Chicken / wings	5860 Mapledale Plz	open
Angel's Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4204 Hemingway Dr	open
Applebee's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		13850 Noblewood Plz	open
Arepas Capitol Gourmet Venezuelan Cuisine Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14091 Noblewood Plz	open
Ariana Afghan Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4182 Dale Blvd	open
Armetta's on Minnieville Rd.	Casual dining · Bar	Italian · Pizza	5524 Staples Mill Plz	open
Babylon Lion Hookah	Bar	Middle Eastern	4335 Dale Blvd	open
Balsamo's pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	14067 Noblewood Plaza	open
Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	13900 Noblewood Plz	open
Bri Makes the Eats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	14398 Westminister Ln	open
Brother Pizza & Sub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4128 Dale Blvd	open
Casa Masala Restaurant & Banquet Hall — Halal Pakistani Mexican Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Mexican · Halal / kosher	5429 Mapledale Plaza	open
Chacha Kabab House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Middle Eastern	5860 Mapledale Plz	open
Chef Darius O. of DHCC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American · BBQ	13885 Hedgewood Dr	open
China Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4313 Dale Blvd	open
Common Grounds	Coffee shop	Coffee	4320 Dale Blvd	open
Crimson Coward Crimson Coward	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	12707 Ridgefield Village Dr	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	4381 Dale Blvd	open
Daks Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13641 Minnieville Rd	open
Dale Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	14132 Minnieville Rd	open
De Las Sisters Bakery & Tropical Ice	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts	4148 Dale Blvd	open
De Leon & Associates Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4331 Dale Blvd	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	2861 Dale Blvd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5892 Mapledale Plz	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	2886 Dale Blvd	open
Down Home Comfort Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	13885 Hedgewood Dr Ste 149	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4101 Dale Blvd	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14123 Noblewood Plz	open
El Charro Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2893 Dale Boulevard	open
Freedom Deck West- Woodbridge	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Fresh Life Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	13895 Hedgewood Dr Ste 149	open
G & F Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	5121 Hoadly Rd	open
Georgee's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	13641 Minnieville Rd	open
Golden House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4131 Cheshire Station Plz	open
Halal Tikka	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Pizza	4306 Dale Blvd	open
Hemibry Catering & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	14091 Noblewood Plz	open
Herbalife Fit & Energia Club de Nutricion	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	4209 Dale Blvd	open
Indian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	5860 Mapledale Plaza	open
J&j Restaurant Business Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5528 Staples Mill Plz	open
Jamaican Breeze VA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	14067 Noblewood Plaza	open
Kafana Seafood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4301 Dale Blvd # 13713	open
Kiki's Creations	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bar · Juice, smoothie, tea	Seafood · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Chicken / wings · American · Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies	14067 Noblewood Plz	open
KikiRiki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	4475 Cheshire Station Plaza	open
L & B's Pizzeria & Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	5401 Mapledale Plaza	open
La Porchetta Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	12753 Apollo Dr	open
Laziz Kabob Woodbridge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13641 Minnieville Rd	open
Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4475 Cheshire Station Plz	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4315 Dale Blvd	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4301 Dale Blvd	open
Mama Nyeng's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5740 Rhode Island Dr	open
Margaritas Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Latin American (other)	4331 Dale Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4245 Dale Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	13698 Mapledale Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	14362 Gideon Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	13840 Noblewood Plz	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2891 Dale Blvd	open
Mofongo Steakhouse & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	14035 Noblewood Plz	open
My Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	4238 Dale Blvd	open
New China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	14698 Minnieville Rd	open
Padrino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4341 Dale Blvd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4814 dale blvd	open
Peruvian Chicken & Grocery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	4802 Dale Blvd	open
Pho 79 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2890 Dale Blvd	open
Pho Banh Mi & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Thai · Asian	4317 Dale Blvd	open
Pho Nu Cuoi Saigon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	2890 Dale Blvd	open
Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4128 Dale Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4306 Dale Blvd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4101 Dale Blvd	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2954 Dale Blvd	open
Pupuseria Bendicion	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	In the Dale city commuter lot, NOW OFFERING DELIVERIES ON YOUR ORDERS, AVIALABLE ONLY ON SATURDAYS, 14090 Gemini Way	open
R&R Entertainment	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Road	open
Ricky's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	5840 Mapledale Plz	open
Sabor Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	2910 Dale Blvd	open
Saran Indian Cuisine	Casual dining		13885 Hedgewood Dr Ste 149	open
Semperfi Lawn Care Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5599 Reardon Ln	open
Shahi Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Middle Eastern · American	2896 Dale Blvd	open
Smokin’ Looney “Q”	Food truck · Catering	BBQ	14035 Noblewood Plz	open
Starbucks	Bakery	Bakery	5469 Mapledale Plz	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	12701 Ridgefield Village Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4471 Cheshire Station Plaza	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	14130 Minnieville Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5828 Mapledale Plaza	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5532 Staples Mill Plz	open
Sunny's Seafood and Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood · Sandwiches	14130 Noblewood Plaza #103	open
Sweet Vegan Eats	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14067 Noblewood Plaza	open
Szechuan Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5832 Mapledale Plaza	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4248 Dale Blvd	open
Talk Of The Mountain Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2851 Dale Blvd	open
The Halal Kingz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	14067 Noblewood Plaza	open
Top China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4334 Dale Blvd	open
Urban Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13895 Hedgewood Dr Ste 109	open
Vernon & Steve Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	15525 Cardinal Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4461 Cheshire Station Way	open
Wok & Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Vietnamese · Thai	4148 Dale Blvd	open
Yogi Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4495 Cheshire Station Plz	open
Zaffron	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	4182 Dale Blvd	open
Zourouna Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Café	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean · Coffee	13641 Minnieville Rd	open
Japomen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14067 Noblewood Plz	closed
Smokin' Brays	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2896 Dale Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	29	29	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	28	28	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	30	30	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	35	35	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	37	37	12	22	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	34	33	12	19	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	31	31	13	17	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	32	32	13	18	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	40	38	17	20	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	38	37	15	21	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	41	38	15	21	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	45	44	17	25	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	49	46	17	28	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	45	43	16	26	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	48	47	17	28	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	40	40	13	26	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	45	45	14	30	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	47	46	17	27	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	50	48	19	28	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	46	44	17	26	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	49	44	15	27	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	53	47	18	28	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	54	50	20	29	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	54	49	20	28	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	50	45	18	25	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	56	50	21	27	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	52	48	21	26	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	62	58	21	34	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	73	67	23	39	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	69	63	21	37	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22193. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22192	3.3 mi	168	2023
22025	3.6 mi	22	2023
20112	4.7 mi	17	2023
22191	4.9 mi	97	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.