BMIE Market 22025
Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 19,356 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,622 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 6,474 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±480 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 17,379 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 6,235 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $150,306 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 38.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,356 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $528,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 9.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22025 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 4.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +1,000.0% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 28 (range 24–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.1 per year, r² 0.86) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22025. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.86, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 86.4 | 86 | 40% | +34.6 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 85.3 | 85 | 35% | +29.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 84.8 | 85 | 25% | +21.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 19,356 | 81 | 40% | +32.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 150,306 | 96 | 40% | +38.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 6,474 | 78 | 20% | +15.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 120 | 95 | 35% | +33.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.4 | 67 | 25% | +16.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 19,356 | 81 | 20% | +16.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 150,306 | 96 | 20% | +19.2 |
Market Momentum Score: 85 (Medium confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 22.2 | 79 | 50% | +49.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 120 | 95 | 30% | +35.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (44)
By cuisine
American 9 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 6 · Mexican 4 · Asian 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Italian 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Japanese 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Spanish / tapas 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 9 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America’s Best Wings - Dumfries | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4230 Fortuna Center Plz | open |
| Antojitos Mios 2 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 16601 Dumfries Rd | open |
| Aroma Pizza Plus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4380 Kevin Walker Dr | open |
| Artisana Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 16830 Dumfries Rd | open |
| Brothers Encore Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 5135 Waterway Dr | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5301 Waterway Dr | open |
| California Tortilla | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3934 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 3880 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 17115 Dumfries Rd. I-95 & SR 234 | open |
| Dab Fashions | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | DMV Virginia | open | |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Dessert · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 5061 Waterway Dr | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 5159 Waterway Dr | open |
| El Papi Street Tacos and Birria Tacos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 16830 Dumfries Rd | open |
| El Paso Mexican Grill | Casual dining · Bar | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 16918 Dumfries Rd | open |
| Fo Japanese Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 5081 Waterway Dr | open |
| Giorgio's Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Italian · Greek | 4394 Kevin Walker Dr | open |
| Hashtag Pizza and Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Sandwiches | 4380 Kevin Walker Dr | open |
| Hot and Halal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern | 17013 Dumfries Rd | open |
| IHOP IHOP | Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 3914 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| MH 24 | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar | open | ||
| Montclair Chinese Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4389 Kevin Walker Dr | open |
| Montclair Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 17001 Dumfries Rd | open |
| Nash & Smashed Nash & Smashed | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Sandwiches | 3934 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| Natraj Enterprises, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3958 Fettler Park Dr | open | |
| New Hunan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 5151 Waterway Dr #1261 | open |
| Nori Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 3974 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Fast casual | Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 4402 Fortuna Center Plaza | open |
| Pardon My Cheesesteak | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3914 Fettler Park Dr | open | |
| Phat Yummies Quesadilla Cantina On Wheels | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 15865 Pebblewood St | open |
| Pizza Hot Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4380 Kevin Walker Dr | open | |
| Pizza Hut Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4310 Fortuna Center Plz | open |
| Playa Bowls Playa Bowls | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 4125 Talon Dr | open |
| Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 16840 Dumfries Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 4310 Fortuna Center Plz | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 3958 Fettler Park Drive | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 5175 Waterway Dr #190 | open |
| Sultan's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3934 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| Tae San Corp | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5175 Waterway Dr | open | |
| Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp | Quick service | 3914 Fettler Park Dr | open | |
| Third Base of Montclair | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4380 Kevin Walker Dr | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 3978 Fettler Park Dr | open |
| Waffle House Waffle House | Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 17137 Dumfries Rd | open |
| WineStyles of Montclair WineStyles | Bar | Spanish / tapas | 4394 Kevin Walker Dr | open |
| Xmplary Lawn Care Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4222 Fortuna Center Plz | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 4 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 13 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 22 | 20 | 8 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 24 | 22 | 8 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2022 |