BMIE Market 22026
Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 22,897 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,486 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 6,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±500 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 14,258 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 4,737 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $124,318 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,639 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 32.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,892 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±114 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $483,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,606 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 8.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22026 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 23.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +57.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 31 (range 28–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.21) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22026. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.21, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 85.9 | 86 | 40% | +34.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56.1 | 56 | 35% | +19.6 |
| Market Momentum Score | 18.1 | 18 | 25% | +4.5 |
Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 22,897 | 84 | 40% | +33.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 124,318 | 92 | 40% | +36.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 6,760 | 79 | 20% | +15.8 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -11.8 | 17 | 35% | +6.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 13.1 | 60 | 25% | +15.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 22,897 | 84 | 20% | +16.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 124,318 | 92 | 20% | +18.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -16.7 | 15 | 50% | +7.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -11.8 | 17 | 30% | +5.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 0 | 28 | 20% | +5.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (59)
By cuisine
American 10 · Chinese 6 · Dessert 6 · Asian 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · African 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Japanese 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Quick service 14 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 6 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Catering 2 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abs Cakes and Catering Services | Bakery | Bakery | 16907 Toms River Loop | open |
| Al and Archie's Soft Serve | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 17945 Fraley Blvd | open |
| Applebee's Grill + Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3330 Pine Bluff Dr | open | |
| Baleadas Express DMV | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | 17397 Wilson St | open | |
| Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice! | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | open | |
| Chick-fil-A | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3330 Pine Bluff Dr | open | |
| China 1 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2112 17076 Jefferson Davis Hwy | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Dessert · Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert | 18021 Main St | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 17020 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Dyvine BBQ In Motion | Catering | BBQ · American | 3940 Acts Ln | open |
| El Tucan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 18013 Dumfries Shopping Plaza | open |
| Feng's Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 18091 Triangle Shopping Plz | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4226 Fortuna Center Plaza | open |
| Fu Sheng Carry-Out | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 18011 Dumfries Shopping Plz | open |
| Genesis Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 18050 Triangle Shopping Plz | open | |
| Great Wall | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 16708 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Happy Eatery Chinese | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 17483 Fraley Blvd | open |
| Harold & Cathy's Dumfries Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast | 17670 Fraley Blvd | open |
| Home Of Sweet Slices Llc | Bakery | Bakery | 17319 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Jerry's Subs & Pizza | Quick service | 17164 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Jimmy T's Soft Serve | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 17986 Main St | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 17450 Jefferson Davis Hwy | open |
| KoTo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Sushi · Japanese | 2844 Myrtlewood Dr | open |
| La Bendicion | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Sandwiches | 18017 Dumfries Shopping Plz | open |
| La Caverna Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | Latin American (other) | 18033 Dumfries Shopping Plaza | open |
| Let Them Eat Cake LLC. | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 3030 Chogburn Ln | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 16708 Jefferson Davis Hwy Unit 121 | open |
| MAMA AFRICA BREAKFAST | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | African · American | 16938 Monmouth Ct | open |
| Mandarin Court | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian | 17233 Wayside Dr | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 18050 Triangle Plaza | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 17340 Dumfries Road | open |
| Mirna Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 17487 Fraley Blvd | open |
| New Orleans Style Snow Balls | Dessert | Dessert | 3940 Acts Ln | open |
| New Orleans Style Snowballs | Dessert · Food truck | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 3490 Acts Lane | open |
| Nik-Hut Grille | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Mediterranean | 16601 Dumfries Road LiDL Parking | open |
| Olatins Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 3103 Chesapeake Dr | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 18085 Triangle Plaza | open |
| Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 17197 Wayside Dr | open |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 17982 Main St | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 17360 Dumfries Rd | open |
| Ruby Tuesday | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 17050 Jefferson Davis Hwy | open |
| Safari African Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | African · American | 17471 Jefferson Davis Hwy | open |
| Scott's Brew Haus | Brewery / taproom · Bar | Twin Six Ln | open | |
| Shah's Halal Food Shah's Halal Food | Quick service | 17229 Wayside Drive | open | |
| Skrimp Shack Skrimp Shack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · Sandwiches · American | 17237 Wayside Dr | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 17317 Jefferson Davis Hwy | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 17041 Richmond Hwy | open |
| sweetFrog | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 17237 Wayside Dr | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 17380 Dumfries Ave | open |
| Tasty Kabob Plus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 17792 Main St | open |
| The Rose - Playbook Sports Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 17680 Colonial St | open |
| Tidewater Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 1750 Dunnington Pl | open |
| Tim's Rivershore | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop | Seafood · Coffee | 1534 Cherry Hill Rd | open |
| Triangle Fried Chicken | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 18069-B Triangle Shopping Plaza | open |
| Trinitie Nutrition Loft | Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 17739 Main St Ste 160 | open |
| Walmart Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 17041 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Wing Guys | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 18017 Dumfries Shopping Plz | open | |
| Wings Ways | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Chicken / wings | 17173 Wayside Dr | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 16708 Richmond Hwy #107 | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 19 | 19 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 17 | 17 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 22 | 22 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 21 | 21 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 22 | 19 | 9 | 10 | — | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 24 | 22 | 11 | 11 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 26 | 23 | 11 | 12 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 28 | 24 | 11 | 13 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 30 | 29 | 13 | 16 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 30 | 13 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 32 | 31 | 14 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 37 | 36 | 17 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 34 | 33 | 15 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 15 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 31 | 31 | 11 | 17 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 32 | 32 | 11 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 33 | 33 | 11 | 18 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 36 | 36 | 11 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 34 | 34 | 12 | 18 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 34 | 34 | 12 | 19 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 34 | 34 | 12 | 18 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 33 | 33 | 11 | 18 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 31 | 31 | 10 | 17 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 36 | 34 | 13 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 36 | 36 | 14 | 20 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 33 | 33 | 12 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 34 | 33 | 12 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 35 | 34 | 11 | 20 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 31 | 31 | 11 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 32 | 30 | 12 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2022 |