BMIE Market 20136
Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 32,325 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,771 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,405 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±466 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 28,498 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 8,483 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $183,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,617 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 37.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $3,025 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $615,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,700 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 13.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20136 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +5.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +1,900.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +1,900.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 25 (range 20–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20136. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 92.4 | 92 | 40% | +36.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 77.1 | 77 | 35% | +27.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 40.9 | 41 | 25% | +10.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 32,325 | 90 | 40% | +36.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 183,750 | 98 | 40% | +39.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,405 | 84 | 20% | +16.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 5.3 | 50 | 35% | +17.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 6.2 | 87 | 25% | +21.9 |
| Population (ACS) | 32,325 | 90 | 20% | +18.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 183,750 | 98 | 20% | +19.7 |
Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -23.1 | 12 | 50% | +6.0 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 5.3 | 50 | 30% | +15.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 1,900 | 100 | 20% | +20.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (50)
By cuisine
Coffee 8 · Asian 5 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Japanese 4 · Pizza 4 · Sushi 4 · Middle Eastern 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aka Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 10474 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Arby's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 12891 Braemar Village Plz | open |
| Asian Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian | 12857 Braemar Village Pz | open |
| Baja Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 10278 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Ben Jin's Asian Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Sushi · Japanese | 9110 Devlin Rd | open |
| Brewbox of Brentsville llc | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 12319 BRISTOW Rd | open |
| Brick Kitchen & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 9110 Devlin Rd | open |
| Bristow Kebab | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 9110 Devlin Rd | open |
| Brunella’s Bakehouse | Bakery | Bakery | Bristow | open |
| Cafe-Delsol | Coffee shop | Coffee | 9033 Ribbon Falls Loop | open |
| California Tortilla | Quick service | 10278 Bristow Center Dr | open | |
| Chelo Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Middle Eastern | 9110 Devlin Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 10303 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Cinco de Mayo Tex Mex Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 10270 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| CUPPi COFFEE | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 9110 Devlin Rd | open |
| District BBQ Bristow | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 10271 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Duck Donuts | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 10286 Bristow Center Drive | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 12713 Braemar Village Plz | open |
| El Agave 5 Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 9110 Devlin Rd | open |
| El Quetzalteco Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 11707 Nokesville Rd | open |
| Foster's Grille Foster's Grille | Casual dining · Bar | Burgers · American | 10266 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Golden Moon Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 12841 Braemar Village Plz | open |
| Goodfellas Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 10215 Carnoch Way | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 10322 Bristow Station Drive Suite 105 | open |
| Lin's China Bistro Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10270 Bristow Center Dr | open | |
| Mamá Llama Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10278 Bristow Center Dr | open | |
| Ming’s Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 10407 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Murlarkey Distilled Spirits | Winery / distillery / taproom | 7961 Gainsford Ct | open | |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 10401 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Performance Specialty Vehicles | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10109 Piper Ln | open | |
| Peri Peri Original Peri Peri Original | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Chicken / wings | 12757 Braemar Village Plz | open |
| Pho Banh Mi 89 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 10278 Bristow Center Dr | open | |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service | Pizza · Italian | 10334 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Priory of Indulgence | Dessert · Bakery | Dessert · Bakery | 10215 Carnoch Way | open |
| Smoothie King Smoothie King | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 10297 Bristow Center Dr. | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 12821 Braemar Village Plz (Safeway-Bri, Stow #2635) | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café | Japanese · Coffee · Sushi | 10438 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 10418 Bristow Center Drive Space C-01 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 12737 Braemar Village Plz | open |
| Sweet Zen7 Nature’s Cafe | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 9110 Devlin Rd Ste 140 | open |
| Thack Shack | Bar | 10125 Pale Rose Loop | open | |
| Thai Peppers | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 10406 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| The Haunting | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Hot dogs | Eagle way street | open |
| Tony's New York Pizza Tony's New York Pizza, Bristow | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 10314 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Velocity Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12853 Braemar Village Plz | open | |
| Viet Flavor | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 10278 Bristow Center Dr | open |
| Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 12741 Braemar Village Plz | open |
| Wingstop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 10415 Bristow Center Dr Ste 4 | open |
| Works Of Wonder Bakery, LLC (aka WOW Bakery) | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 12003 Lake Dorian Dr | open |
| ِAl Zain Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 13083 Sidlaw Hills Ln | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 19 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 22 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 11 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 25 | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 23 | 23 | 10 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 27 | 26 | 10 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 27 | 26 | 10 | 14 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 26 | 25 | 10 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 25 | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 25 | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 22 | 20 | 8 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2022 |