BMIE Market 20181

Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,774 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,830 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,310 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,877 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,758 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$164,167 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,083 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,487 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±493 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$709,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,925 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	77.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20181
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 4–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	89 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20181. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.4	81	40%	+32.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90.0	90	35%	+31.5
Market Momentum Score	89.5	89	25%	+22.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,774	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	164,167	97	40%	+39.0
Households (ACS)	3,310	68	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.7	96	25%	+23.9
Population (ACS)	10,774	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	164,167	97	20%	+19.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · American 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Carini's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12826 Fitzwater Dr	open
Cedar Run Brewery	Brewery / taproom		12801 Hazelwood Dr	open
Chuckwagon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12846-A Fitzwater Dr	open
Dara Farm 다라 농장	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9604 Silas Dr	open
Effingham Manor & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		14325 Trotters Ridge Pl	open
Hector's of Nokesville	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12846 Fitzwater Dr	open
Insane Asylum Bar-n-Grille	Bar · Casual dining		4 Crazy Lane	open
Nokesville Winery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		12905 Fitzwater Dr Unit 105	open
Pampa's Fox Bakery	Bakery · Catering	Bakery	13059 Fitzwater Dr	open
Tejanos Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	13065 Fitzwater Dr	open
Vita Nova Creatives & Coffee	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	13051 Fitzwater Dr	open
Washington, DC	Café		13610 Fleetwood Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20181. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20136	4.2 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.