BMIE Market 20165

Loudoun County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	34,088 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,630 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,939 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±561 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	32,383 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,774 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$183,076 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,542 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,531 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$704,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,915 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	54 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20165
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-1.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+315.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	49 (range 42–56) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.8 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	94 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20165. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.7	94	40%	+37.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.2	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	37.5	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	34,088	91	40%	+36.5
Median household income (ACS)	183,076	98	40%	+39.4
Households (ACS)	11,939	89	20%	+17.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-1.8	22	35%	+7.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.8	50	25%	+12.5
Population (ACS)	34,088	91	20%	+18.2
Median household income (ACS)	183,076	98	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-1.8	22	30%	+6.7
20-year restaurant growth	25.6	50	20%	+9.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (103)

By cuisine

Asian 14 · Coffee 9 · American 8 · Pizza 8 · Mexican 7 · Japanese 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Peruvian 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Indian 5 · Italian 5 · BBQ 4 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chinese 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Middle Eastern 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Vietnamese 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Korean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 73 · Bar 17 · Quick service 15 · Coffee shop 7 · Café 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Casual dining 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
323 Dhaba Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	20800 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
A Taste Of Burma Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southeast Asian (other)	126 Edds Ln	open
Applebee's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		45979 Denizen Plz	open
Baja Fresh	Quick service		20968 Southbank St, # H-1	open
Balti Indian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	46005 Regal Plz Ste 140	open
Barracuda Brews	Bar		47589 Reef Ter	open
BGR The Burger Joint	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	46230 Cranston St	open
bolzano's deli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	20921 Davenport Dr	open
Bon chon Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	20921 Davenport Dr	open
Bonchon Sterling	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	20921 Davenport Dr Ste 131	open
Boston Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	46286 Cranston St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	45961 Denizen Plaza	open
Byblos Restaurant	Bar		20789 Great Falls Plz	open
Cafe Techs	Coffee shop	Coffee	6 Pidgeon Hill Dr Ste 116	open
Captain Mas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	46303 McClellan Way	open
Carmine's Sterling	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	20789 Great Falls Plz	open
Casa Tequila Bar & Grill - Sterling Casa Tequila Bar & Grill - Purcellville	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	7 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Chai House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Tea / bubble tea · Sushi · Japanese	45565 Bentgrass Ter	open
Cheng's Oriental Restaurant	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)		20921 Davenport Dr	open
CHIKO CHIKO	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese	46308 Cranston St	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	45999 Regal Plz	open
China Gourmet Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	20789 Great Falls Plaza	open
China King Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	21025 Southbank St	open
China Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	32 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	21031 Tripleseven Rd Ste 190	open
Clove	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	45981 Woodpecker Sq	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	45999 Regal Plz, Ste 100	open
Coldspoon Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	Great Falls Plaza	open
Corner Bakery Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	46290 Cranston St	open
Delia's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	128 Edds Ln	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	20921 Davenport Dr Ste 126 Ste 126	open
Dońa Sarzon Latin Peruvian Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	30 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Doña Sazón Doña Sazón	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	30 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	20789 Great Falls Plaza	open
El Estribo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	56 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Ethiopian Hashatg	Bar		117 Country Rd	open
Famous Dave's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	21080 Southbank St	open
Fuente De Soda	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Peruvian · Sandwiches	20890 Davenport Dr #130	open
Honest Tom's Auto Care	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20850 Hardwood Forest Dr Unit Ava	open
Hong Chau Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20921 Davenport Dr Ste 108	open
Hooked	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20789 Great Falls Plz Ste 176	open
Inca Maya Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Peruvian	20921 Davenport Dr	open
INJU Sterling	Restaurant (service type not stated)		46300 Cranston St	open
Italian Bean Delight	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6 Pidgeon Hill Dr Ste 116	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	21031 Tripleseven Rd	open
Keg Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		46116 Lake Center Plz	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	45960 Denizen Plz	open
Koyla Bar B Q Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	45965 Regal Plz	open
Ledo Pizza Sterling, VA Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	21005 Pigeon Dr	open
Lemon Lounge & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	45985 Regal Plz	open
Lima De Veras Peruvian Restobar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	20910 Davenport Dr	open
Local Provisions	Restaurant (service type not stated)		46286 Cranston St	open
Los Brothers Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	20921 Davenport Dr Suite 108	open
Los Toltecos Los Toltecos of Broadlands.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Lucia's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	20789 Great Falls Plz	open
Mahalo Cove	Bar		46300 McClellan Way	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	20880 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	20961 Southbank St	open
Mehfil Indian Restaurant & Bar - Sterling	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	45999 Pigeon Dr Ste 150	open
Mission BBQ MISSION BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	45979 Denizen Plz	open
Mist Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	46110 Lake Center Plz	open
Miyama	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	20789 Great Falls Plaza	open
Moe's Hookah Lounge	Bar		20921 Davenport Dr #111	open
Mokomandy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	20789 Great Falls Plaza	open
Moon Lounge	Bar		20921 Davenport Dr	open
Ms. Peach's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	20789 Great Falls Plaza	open
Naz's Halal Food Naz's Halal Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern	40 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Noodles and Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Noodles / ramen / pho · Healthy / salads / bowls	46038 Cranston St	open
OTANI Japanese Steak & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	120 Edds Ln	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	20789 Great Falls Plaza	open
Paris Baguette	Coffee shop	Coffee	46309 Cranston St Ste 500	open
Persian Food Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20921 Davenport Dr Ste 133	open
Petra's Place	Bar			open
Pizza Twist	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	46005 Regal Plz	open
Q & H Trading Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20921 Davenport Dr Ste 131	open
Quickway Japanese Hibachi Quickway Japanese Hibachi Carter's Crossing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	21031 Tripleseven Rd Ste #180	open
Robeks Robeks Fresh Juices & Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	21012 Southbank St	open
Saffron House of Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher	20921 Davenport Dr	open
Scotts GTee Lounge	Bar · Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	20363 Brentmeade Ter	open
Senor Tequila's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	46300 Cranston St	open
Sher Food Service Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		46110 Lake Center Plz	open
Sortrel Thai Restaurant & Bar SORTREL	Bar	Thai · Asian	46 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	Countryside Marketplace, 3 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	21021 Southbank St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	45985 120 Regal Plaza	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	20789 Great Falls Plz Ste 166	open
Sushi Mori	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	20921 Davenport Dr	open
sweetFrog sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	20955 Davenport Dr	open
T zone Dessert	Dessert · Café · Bakery	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	45999 Regal Plz	open
Taco Bamba Sterling Taco Bamba	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	20968 Southbank St	open
Taste of Vietnam Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	46005 Regal Plz	open
The Bungalow Lakehouse	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		46116 Lake Center Plz	open
The Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	104 Edds Ln	open
The Dons' Wood-Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	21018 Southbank St	open
The Harrington Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food		open
The Pit Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	46230 Cranston St	open
Toosso	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	20921 Davenport Dr	open
Tous Les Jours	Restaurant (service type not stated)		30 Pidgeon Hill Dr	open
Velocity Wings - Potomac Falls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Chicken / wings · Mexican · American	20789 Great Falls Plz	open
Viet Kitchen & Tea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Vietnamese	20789 Great Falls Plaza #174	open
Vocelli Pizza	Bar	Pizza · Italian	46005 Regal Plz	open
Gazi Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20921 Davenport Dr	closed
Pauly's Rib Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	21060 Whitfield Pl	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	23	23	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	29	27	16	9	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	31	30	17	9	4	—	NAICS1997
2000	34	33	18	12	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	39	38	20	16	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	39	39	20	15	4	—	NAICS1997
2003	44	43	24	15	4	1	NAICS2002
2004	49	46	25	17	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	53	50	25	20	5	2	NAICS2002
2006	50	46	24	19	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	51	47	23	20	4	2	NAICS2002
2008	51	47	25	18	4	2	NAICS2007
2009	46	44	22	18	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	50	49	23	21	5	—	NAICS2007
2011	49	48	22	22	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	53	50	23	24	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	59	55	26	25	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	63	59	29	24	6	1	NAICS2012
2015	66	62	29	28	5	1	NAICS2012
2016	67	64	34	24	6	—	NAICS2012
2017	63	60	30	26	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	56	54	24	25	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	59	56	26	24	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	56	53	24	24	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	54	51	23	23	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	55	52	23	22	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	58	54	22	25	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20165. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20164	3.2 mi	85	2023
20837	4.2 mi	8	2023
20147	4.7 mi	148	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.