BMIE Market 20837

Montgomery County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,699 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,366 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,789 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,059 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$174,063 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,750 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,996 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,884 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$772,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,855 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20837
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20837. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.0	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	27.9	28	25%	+7.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,699	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	174,063	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	2,366	64	20%	+12.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	6,699	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	174,063	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 2 · Asian 2 · Coffee 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Active Nature	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15205 Montevideo Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	19706 Fisher Ave	open
Bassett's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	19950 Fisher Ave	open
Connection Cafe'	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	17800 Elgin Rd	open
Cugini's Restaurant and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	19616 Fisher Ave	open
House of Poolesville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	19611 Fisher Ave	open
K2 Cafe And Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17610 W Willard Rd	open
Kristophers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	19710 Fisher Ave	open
Landmade Brewing	Brewery / taproom		19124 Jerusalem Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	19630 Fisher Ave	open
Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	19710 Fisher Ave	open
Oriental Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	19635 Fisher Ave	open
Rocklands Farm Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		14531 Montevideo Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	19710-B Fisher Ave	open
Thai commons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	19635 Fisher Ave	open
The Crossvines	Winery / distillery / taproom		16601 W Willard Rd	open
The Healthy Hub	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	19942 Fisher Ave	open
Tony's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	19900 Fisher Ave	open
Yolo Md Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		19950 Fisher Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	1	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	1	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20837. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20165	4.2 mi	54	2023
20839	4.7 mi	1	2002

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.