BMIE Market 20180

Loudoun County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,531 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±597 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,525 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,549 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,395 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$151,483 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,755 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±441 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$664,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,553 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20180
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+450.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+450.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 14–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20180. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.0	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.9	69	35%	+24.1
Market Momentum Score	60.0	60	25%	+15.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,531	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	151,483	96	40%	+38.5
Households (ACS)	2,525	65	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	35%	+22.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.6	54	25%	+13.6
Population (ACS)	7,531	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	151,483	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	30%	+19.5
20-year restaurant growth	450	98	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 6 · Bakery 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Winery / distillery / taproom 6 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1836 Kitchen and Taproom	Casual dining · Bar	American	34 E Broad Way	open
Andy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Pizza · Italian	2 Town Sq	open
Back Street Brews Coffee & Tea House	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11 E Pennsylvania Ave	open
Bake It	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Peruvian · Chicken / wings	27 S Loudoun St	open
Capital Sculpture Garden & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		13967 Berlin Turnpike	open
Cassia Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	20 Town Sq Unit 160	open
Catamaran Hills Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		39775 Wenner Rd	open
Catoctin Coffee Company	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	13179 Forest Green Ln	open
Cool Spring Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		37871 Nicewarner Ln	open
Creek's Edge Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		41255 Annas Ln	open
Daughter Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	19 E Broad Way	open
Domaine Fortier Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		13235 Milltown Rd	open
El Pitayo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5 Town Center Dr	open
Evolution Food Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13 E Broad Way	open
Flying Aces	Brewery / taproom		40950 Flying Ace Ln	open
Hiddencroft Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		12202 Axline Rd	open
Its A Peace of Cake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	38501 Kalb School Ln	open
Lovettsville Diner	Casual dining	American	2 N Berlin Pike	open
Mad Horse Brewpub	Brewery / taproom		34 E Broad Way	open
Market Table Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13 E Broad Way	open
One Family Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		12890 Berlin Turnpike	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	40019 Barbaras Bluff Ct	open
Rasco NY Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	20 Town Sq #120	open
Rodeo's Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	26 E Broad Way D	open
Stockyard Brewery	Brewery / taproom		12428 Mountain Rd	open
The Greeks' Restaurant and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	610 N Main St	open
The Preserve House	Bakery	Bakery	38280 Bolington Rd	open
The Restaurant at Patowmack Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	42461 Lovettsville Rd	open
Train to Mumbai - Farm Indian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	11 Town Center Dr	open
Twisted Cat Tavern - Lovettsville	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 Town Sq #100	open
Velocity Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	20 Town Sq	open
Lovettsville Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	26 E Broad Way # D	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	10	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	14	11	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20180. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21716	3.4 mi	13	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.