BMIE Market 21716

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±464 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,924 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,885 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,054 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,382 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,195 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$361,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,270 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21716
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+160.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21716. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.2	74	40%	+29.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.9	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	73.6	74	25%	+18.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,200	66	40%	+26.4
Median household income (ACS)	109,382	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	2,924	67	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.1	43	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	7,200	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	109,382	86	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.2	76	50%	+38.0
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	62.5	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 6 · Bakery 5 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bakery 6 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Better Choice Bakery And Market	Bakery	Bakery		open
Adele’s Texmex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	640 Souder Rd	open
American Legion	Bar		18 S Maple Ave	open
Asia Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	1201 Dutchmans creek Dr# J	open
B.Anderson's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Cajun, Creole, Southern	66 Souder Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1194 Dutchmans Creek Dr	open
Beans in the Belfry	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	122 W Potomac St	open
Boxcar Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	12 S Maple Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1196 Dutchmans Creek Dr	open
Celeste	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 S Maple Ave	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks and Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15411 Excelsior Dr	open
Curry's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		640 Souder Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	74 Souder Rd Unit 74	open
El Sloppy Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12 S Maple Ave	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1201 Dutchmans Creek Dr C	open
King's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	215 W Potomac St	open
Kissed By Sugar	Bakery	Bakery	1159 Potomac View Pkwy	open
Maison	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	318 Petersville Rd	open
Maple & Rye Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9 W Potomac St	open
Moose Knuckle Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1169 Potomac View Pkwy	open
New China Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	66 Souder Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1201 dutchmans creek drive	open
Penny's Diner Penny's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	620 Souder Rd	open
Pighole BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	Truist Bank, 94 Souder Rd	open
Potomac Street Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · American	31 E Potomac St	open
Puerto Rico Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		402 5th Ave	open
Roy Rogers Roy Rogers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	28 Souder Rd	open
Smoketown Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		223 W Potomac St	open
Stroker's BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	6 W Potomac St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	90 Souder Rd	open
Warm & Whisked	Bakery	Bakery	1422 Scheer St	open
Whistle Punk Farm Deli, Food Truck, & Catering	Food truck	American	30 W Potomac St	open
Wing N Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	100 Souder Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	—	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	11	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	3	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21716. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21758	2.9 mi	3	2023
20180	3.4 mi	11	2023
21755	4.3 mi	4	2017
21715	4.6 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.